I got this info Re: #Turkey from a DavidTakaki on Twitter. TURKEY’S OBJECTIVES Turkey wants to use the ISIS imbroglio to eliminate what it views as the PKK threat to the Turkish State that exists in the form of the Rojava Cantons in North and Northeast Syria. It would be hard to imagine the ISIS leadership not being aware of intent. • Position Turkey diplomatically, aligning itself with the United States and NATO while delaying any military involvement with conditions that Turkey knows US will be slow to respond to if at all. Turkey will avoid “walking the talk”, as this would be in conflict with its strategic objectives • Allow ISIS to militarily defeat YPG and by association, PKK fighters in Syria who are helping to fight ISIS • This is in preparation to creating a west to east anti-PKK, YPG, Rojava buffer zone along the border east into Northern Iraq. The ‘buffer zone’ will be diplomatically characterized as an anti-ISIS security area along Turkey’s Anatolian frontier with Syria and Iraq. • At the opportune time, possibly if and when Kobanê Canton falls to ISIS, and Efrin Canton is besieged, Turkey will “activate” the issue of Sulaiman Shah’s Tomb south of Kobanê and sweep south in a two-pronged attack that will evolve into a pincer movement on the east-west M-4 axis. This movement will also place Turkish forces between the ISIS strongholds of Jarabulus and Tal Abyad. • The tactical intent will be to cordon off that portion of the Turkish-Syrian frontier centered on Kobanê in preparation for establishing a thrust to the west and east along the border region to diplomatically deny ISIS control of the region, but more important, extirpate the presence of YPG and PKK along with the dismantling of Efrin Canton, Kobanê Canton, and ultimately isolating, with another salient to its west, Cizîre Canton (Jazeera, e.g., Qamishli). At a later date, in exchange for relieving the blockade, Turkey will seek to neutralize this final Rojava Canton. • Turkey will then carve out Syrian territory along the frontier to create refugee camps that Syrian refugees in Turkey can be relocated to, by force if necessary. • ISIS will retreat to al Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor Governorates to the east and south, consolidating a smaller state, with the intent to hold al Raqqa as capital and springboard for the future. Turkey will do little to impede this adjustment. • At the same time, Turkey will increase its diplomatic efforts to have its “allies” establish No Fly Zones in the western part of Syria. • The United States and NATO value Turkey remaining in the Atlantic Alliance, and will not criticize Turkey openly. Were Turkey to distance itself from NATO membership, or possibly even leave the organization, the regional strategic rebalancing would be almost instantaneous. • THIS IS THE STRATEGIC REASONING FOR PYD CO-CHAIR SALEH MUSLIM, ROJAVA AND YPG/J MILITARY FORCES TO EMBRACE A WIDER SYRIAN UNIVERSAL SAFE ZONE STRATEGY AND BEGIN FOLDING PYD KURDISH MILITARY FORCES INTO THE STRUCTURE OF A NEW SYRIAN ARMY, THUS CLOAKING LONGER TERM OBJECTIVES FROM TURKISH ACTIONS THAT WOULD THEN BE SEEN AS TURKISH ACTIONS AGAINST A BROADER ANTI-SYRIAN OPPOSITION…
Posted on: Wed, 08 Oct 2014 05:58:06 +0000
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