I guess I need to address something. We are getting lots of messages about Where is all this Winter Weather everyone predicted. Last nights Winter Weather Advisory was mostly for black ice and freezing drizzle. I cannot speak for all the forecasters but I can speak for ours so Ill address ours. Our forecast included mainly freezing drizzle, with the chance that a little sleet or a wet snow flake mixing in from time to time. The chance of sleet and a wet snow flake was actually only around 20%. Our policy at Burke Weather is the we introduce the chance of precipitation when we feel the chance of it is over 20%. The reason we felt like a wet snow flake or sleet pellet could mix in is because models showed, across the board, a brief window between 18z (1am) and 10z (5am) where the atmosphere cooled to -2 degrees Celsius. At that temp if a band of moisture would have moved over the area there could have been a little light sleet or a few wet snowflakes. To see a good snow event I like to see temps -10 to -20 degrees Celsius somewhere in the column of air where snow can develop. Last nights system developed too far to the East. As we forecast not much moisture made it into our area, just a cold air wedge mist. Ice really starts to develop when the temp reaches 31.6 degrees. If the temperature sits at 32.0 degrees we will not see much ice. The issue with this is that many digital thermometers do not have a decimal point viewable, they just round up or down. In summary, our forecast, and many other agencies forecasts, did not bust last night. Remember that a Winter Weather Advisory doesnt always mean you will get precipitation. The advisory can also be issued for black ice. We always include the impacts when a text alert comes to you. Click the link in the texts to read more about how future advisories, watches, or warnings will impact you. Dont just assume from the advisory what impact it will have on your life. I am proud of my forecast team and you should be too. Chris White Chief Meteorologist Burke Weather Incorporated
Posted on: Wed, 14 Jan 2015 18:43:50 +0000