I have had a ton of emails lately from folks asking me what the heck is going on with the western weather pattern. Yes we have had a couple of cold spells, but we have also been going through periods of very mild conditions and very windy conditions as well. In a nutshell, High Pressure has been dominating the western U.S. during these periods when temperatures are reaching 20 to 30 degrees above normal. During periods like this, much of the very mild air can be blamed on strong downsloping winds which heat up as they pick up speed when rushing from mountain elevations above 14,000 feet to below 5,000 feet. As you all are aware, we are going through this very type of wind pattern right now. Here in Lyons, I have recorded a top gust of 73mph, with several gusts topping 50 and 60mph over the last several hours. These strong winds should subside, thanks in part to a cold front that will be moving through late tonight into Wednesday morning. It will only serve to cool the temps back to seasonal norms and bring very little moisture with it. This will be a one day affair and then back to above normal temps on Thursday through the weekend. The next question I get of course is when will this pattern be broken? I have been monitoring would could be a High Pressure buster well out in the Pacific. It is showing up quite nicely at the end of the 10 day outlook which covers 240 hours. I posted two maps that show a nice view of this monster system. All of the long range models are showing this system in one form or another. I am posting two maps from the Canadian GEM model that illustrate what I am analyzing and monitoring in all the long range models. The first map is of the North Pacific. Check out how HUGE this system is (red and yellow shadings). You can just make out the west coast at the very right edge of the map. You are seeing WA, OR and CA (I have labeled each state). The second map is a map of North America. It too shows this monster system by day 10 showing up on the west coast. If this system were to win out over the strong High Pressure ridge and not be pushed up into Canada, it could make it to CO in 12 to 16 days, depending on track, speed and timing. When systems are this far out, there are no guarantees. The computer models will handle this storm system differently for quite some time. Ill continue to monitor this system and pass along updates over the coming days. For now, it looks like that except for a few minor interruptions in the mild weather pattern, get use to above normal temps and very little precipitation in the Foothills and along the Front Range, extending to the Kansas border. DISCLAIMER: These maps are courtesy of Weather Bell Analytics. This is one of the services I subscribe to.
Posted on: Tue, 02 Dec 2014 22:10:21 +0000
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