I have taken several different increments of the 2005 hurricane season and am showing you just how much of a hurricane-favoring pattern we are heading into next month. ALWAYS remember that just like the saying holds that no snowflake is exactly alike when youre using analog forecasting you arent looking for exact similarities, but youre looking for a pattern that looks capable of producing the results of another. So take note of these two comparisons. The danger here is that we potentially develop into the same height pattern that we had for the record setting hurricane season of 2005; we develop a blocking ridge in the North Atlantic that worked to guide a lot of storms into the Gulf that year, Katrina being one of them. Not only does this high height pattern in the North Atlantic work to direct storms to the Gulf and southeast; it ALSO allows them to gather a TON of energy in years like these where we have a scary amount of warm water in the Atlantic... So, bottom line is that I am not guaranteeing that we will undoubtedly see a record setting month of October for the Atlantic breeding grounds, though the parameters certainly are there
Posted on: Mon, 15 Sep 2014 23:08:39 +0000
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