I keep hearing people talk about wanting broad sanctions against Russia as a form of punishment or coercion to get them to leave Ukraine alone. What these people do not understand is that Putin *wants* sanctions. The neo-Soviet hardliners all want economic sanctions imposed. Putin is trying to create a new Russian-led empire that draws on what he sees as the best elements of fascism and the best elements of communism. In order to accomplish this, he requires a series of crises that allow him to transform Russias economy into something wholly controlled by the Kremlin, and to militarize Russian society. Sanctions will hand him another of those crises. Economic sanctions imposed by the US would allow Putin to issue counter-sanctions and punish anyone who violates them. There are a lot of capitalist oligarchs that Putin needs to get rid of. Those oligarchs tend to do business with the west and mutual sanctions will allow Putin to seize their assets and throw them in prison. He can also seize the assets of American businesses like Exxon that have a lot of money and equipment invested in the energy business in Russia. This will give him greater central control of the Russian economy and make it even easier to put a lease on gas and oil exports in order to use energy as a weapon against western Europe. At the same time, American sanctions will enable Putin to conduct a sudden purge of pro-western (or insufficiently hawkish) politicians, government workers and media figures. His domestic political opposition will vanish, ensuring that Vladimir Putin will be dictator for life. The more economically isolated that Russia becomes, the easier it will be for Putin to endanger or destroy relationships with other governments when he wants to take a hard line on something (like invading Georgia or cutting off gas exports to Germany in the dead of winter). Economic sanctions will not get the US or Europe what we want from Russia.
Posted on: Mon, 17 Mar 2014 20:59:09 +0000
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