I know many of you take weather models seriously...and they watch every run. But as Ive said before, there is more to meteorology than just reading models. OK, the models have a storm in the stream, and we will have cold and moisture available. A little education 101 for any would be meteorologist. The first thing a forecaster has to do is get in touch with the weather. This means looking at the weather pattern for the last couple of days, as well as what is going on currently. Then you take a look at the different major characteristics of the various layers in the atmosphere. This is done with surface and upper atmosphere charts Then when you have a good feel for the flow of the pattern; then and only then do you look at the models. Here is a look at the at the 500mb vorticity charts The Models are showing a giant storm ... theyre having issues with the track..... now the 500mb pattern is showing a piece of the polar vortex will drop into northern New York State and northern New England, So this will pump the cold air into the northeast and Mid Atlantic. We will also have moisture in place from the Gulf and Atlantic (which is warmer than average for this time of year.) OK, the models have a storm in the stream, and we will have cold and moisture available. So we will get a big snow storm right? Maybe maybe not. The 500mb is showing a very broad ridge out west..... This ridge has a lot to say about how the storm will track once it gets to the Carolina Coast. The ridge as it is shown would make it harder for the storm to turn too much to the west..... The high pressure that will be building in on Sunday, very well could push the storm development further south.....if the high builds in to fast it could push a lot of the snow south of New York and New England. The models are showing the storm stalling for a time....The Euro has it stalling off the northern Mid Atlantic....this is too soon if you want major snowfall over southern New England.... The good news is the pattern really doesnt support a stall at that point..... instead it favors a stall off the New England coast....... Based on what Im seeing now, most eastern Pennsylvania will dodge a bullet. Northeastern Pennsylvania including Philadelphia, New Jersey, New York City, and New England (especially southern New England have a better than 50% shot at seeing a major snowstorm. The storm will most likely bomb....its going to be a broad scale storm which means a wide wind field.....so it will be quite windy. which could lead to coastal flooding. This storm has a lot of potential and the location of the storm will be decisive Right now , southwest of the Bench mark over to just off the southeast Mass coast. The 00Z models will have a lot to say on how things will evolve and unfold..... stay tuned over the next 24 to 36 hours....I will have updates as things become clearer.
Posted on: Sun, 25 Jan 2015 02:42:30 +0000
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