I see 4 potential directions of mid-range future for Israel/Palestine: (1) A genuine effort at an equitable framework distributing land and power to allow for maximal rights and self-determination by Jews and Palestinians in the area of conflict. No, I do not have a specific framework in mind; STEP 1: שיח רציני: serious brainstorming by the reasonable parties in the conflict who prefer this option. ENDGAME: co-existence. I dont yet have a specific framework in mind. Lets get our best thinkers invested in this, instead of the other options, and were sure to come up with a more precise vision and plan. ***Critique: its not plausible or viable. ***Response: neither are the other options. + its worth trying. this does not need to be pursued instead of the other options, but can happen alongside any of them, by changing our discourse and developing programs of understanding and respect. + If were all going to die anyway, Id rather us go down pursuing solutions rather than destruction of self and other. (2) Israel wins. i.e., Israel maintains its identity as a democratic Jewish State with sovereignty over defeated submissive/aqcuiescent/grateful Palestinians STEP 1: keep a strong hasbara and ever-increasingly frequent military engagements. ENDGAME: I honestly dont know. Genocide is advocated by some. I hope nobody reading this is willing to consider that. Others say-- show them enough strength, and the Arabs will accept Israeli sovereignty. ***Critique: so incredibly not viable. (Im willing to hear counter-arguments to this). Genocide: as above. Keeping Palestinians under Israeli domination as containment: The more desperate Palestinians become, the more likely that individuals will resort to desperate measures. Israel has the strength to quell an intifada, but there is no victory that can be absolute. Option (2) is really a variation of option 4. (3) Palestinians win. This can mean many things. Here, i mean some sort of scenario in which militant Palestinians desiring to rid Israel of Jews manage to destroy or take over Israel in a decisive manner. ***Critique: This will seem unlikely and undesirable to almost all of my readers (4) A version of the status quo, which is not really a state of stability, but an ever-escalating poweder keg, a la Doctor Seusss Butter-Battle. (I was interested to see this source cited in a recent Haaretz article. Ive been thinking of it a lot lately). STEP 1: more of the same mowing the lawn, containment, incitement and insecurity. large-scale violation of rights. risk of intifada. STEP 2: Israel learns to tolerate and absorb some dozens or hundreds or thousands of casualties of Israeli Jews annually, and to inflict the same or more. until we reach Step 2 in its genocidal form or Step 3. ***Critique: seriously? Of course there are always unforeseen possibilities. One needs to even expect such. But, in a general way, those are the options I see. If somebody sees any option but (1) as realistic, Id like to hear why.
Posted on: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 07:45:16 +0000
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