I think its legitimate to worry that MIRI-FHI folk have some - TopicsExpress

I think its legitimate to worry that MIRI-FHI folk have some contrarian views about long-term AI outcomes. On the other hand, talking to experts in AI and forecasting has confirmed to me that approximately none of them have developed their own modular analyses and iterated them through many rounds of criticism and fact-checking, like MIRI-FHI folk have. So do we really have contrarian views, or do we just have unusually well-developed views on issues about which everyone else is just making stuff up on the spot, with no modular analysis or fact-checking? In other words, do we have contrarian views, or did we simply ask contrarian *questions*?

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