I think the West has missed a trick in relation to Crimea. The West supported/delivered action in Afghanistan and Iraq, supported the independence of Kosovo and supported the popular movement of people in Kiev and other parts of Ukraine against the incumbent, Yanukovich. So, the West supported regime change, not just in the above but also in Arab Spring countries too. Crimea was and is very much a part of Russian history and, in addition to the ethnic Russian majority in this autonomous republic, a great many people in the streets/restaurants etc were the Russian black sea fleet personnel. It is true there was a treaty respecting Ukraines sovereignty and it is true that this was breached. But throwing around international law is a highly debatable and emotive subject, especially in light of recent Western historical intervention in other countries. So, now we have entered a terrible tit for tat phase with its associated downward spiral without a clear end. Surely if the West had stepped back a moment they might have thought that, together with Ukraine, it would have made sense to negotiate mutual respect for the actions of indigenous people. Yes i know that the Ukrainians and Tatars do not agree with the majority but neither do the ethnic Russians in East/South Ukraine agree either. If the West and the acting Government in Kiev had negotiated a settlement over Crimea (and frankly, in relation to the referendum the result did not really depend on the presence of Russian troops) then the West/Kiev could have negotiated a parallel long term settlement for Ukraine, and surely this was a far bigger prize well worth having. Putin would have looked like the hero he craved domestically, his legacy would have been secure and the West/Kiev could have negotiated economic benefits and stability of energy supplies, including for Ukraine. Lose Crimea (its lost anyway) but gain Russian troop withdrawal from the Eastern border, secure energy supplies and renewed respect for national sovereignty. Then, a certain amount of regional self governance (a la States in the USA or regional authorities in the EU) together with a lack of Russian troops on the border would have secured the whole of Ukraine (especially the East) and its desire for a democratic future. Now what we have is Kiev and the West saying that they will never accept the results of the referendum (however flawed) and so there is no solution without loss of face. And so it will go on and the more sanctions that are imposed the closer we push Russia to moving into Moldova, Ukraine (to establish the rival Eurasian trading bloc) and, possibly, the Baltic States too. Because the West will do nothing militarily and everybody knows it. I think the West has played its hand badly and i do not think this is helping Ukraine to reach a brighter, more democratic future. If sanctions really start to bite one of two things will happen 1) Russia will fight (it has a history of doing so when backed into a corner) or 2) the Putin regime will be overthrown. I know which one my money is on.
Posted on: Sat, 22 Mar 2014 00:20:44 +0000
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