IDD20021 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1321 UTC 14/03/2014 Name: Tropical Cyclone Gillian Identifier: 14U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 13.1S Longitude: 139.9E Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km] Movement Towards: slow moving Speed of Movement: slow moving Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h] Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h] Central Pressure: 1001 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km] Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km] Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km] Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km] Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km] Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1009 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km] FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa +06: 14/1800: 12.7S 139.9E: 050 [095]: 035 [065]: 1001 +12: 15/0000: 12.3S 139.5E: 065 [120]: 040 [075]: 998 +18: 15/0600: 12.1S 139.0E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 998 +24: 15/1200: 11.9S 138.6E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 998 +36: 16/0000: 11.4S 137.4E: 110 [200]: 040 [075]: 998 +48: 16/1200: 11.1S 136.0E: 130 [235]: 040 [075]: 999 +60: 17/0000: 10.8S 133.8E: 150 [275]: 040 [075]: 999 +72: 17/1200: 10.7S 131.2E: 165 [310]: 045 [085]: 997 +96: 18/1200: 10.6S 124.7E: 210 [390]: 045 [085]: 998 +120: 19/1200: 11.0S 117.4E: 300 [555]: 050 [095]: 995 REMARKS: The system has shown steady development over the last 24 hours with a consolidated area of convection evident to the east of the low level circulation. The position is based on the 1130UTC satellite image and the Weipa and Gove radars. Shear pattern with the LLC within 0.5 degrees of the strong temperature gradient yields DT=3.0. MET and PAT agree, so FT=3.0. The cyclone is located near the upper level ridge with generally weak shear through depth, however the passage of a mid level trough and the building of the ridge and associated dry air behind it have seen the eastern side of the system preferred for convection. The low level centre has been slowly moving NE over the last 12 hours in response to the mid/upper trough moving just south of the system, but is expected to turn to the NW over the next few hours as the ridge becomes the dominant steering mechanism. The system may intensify slightly over the next 12 hours, but further development will be restricted by increasing S/SE wind shear and mid level dry air entrainment due to the building ridge to the south and west. In the longer term, the system is expected to move into the Timor Sea but continued shear is expected to significantly slow further intensification. Most models are in agreement with the cyclone tracking west along the north coast of the Top End, NT. However there is significant variation in model intensity guidance. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Posted on: Fri, 14 Mar 2014 19:20:11 +0000
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