IMPORTANT FOR YOUR INFO … . urGEM nature systems WHAT OUR WORLD NEEDS TO KNOW _________________________________________________ Steven Earl Salmony shared apollo-gaia.org/ArcticDynamics.html Executive Summary Strong and interactive feedback processes are driving change in the Arctic climate faster than anywhere else on the planet. This over-view of Arctic Dynamics is firmly grounded in observational data (in sharp contrast with computer models which are struggling to play catch-up). Four multi-decadal parameters are presented dealing with: · Regional temperature change (in the context of global behaviour) · Area of floating sea ice · Volume (or mass) of floating sea ice · Change in the decadal rate of mass loss of the floating sea ice. All show strongly non-linear behaviour consistent with feedback-driven amplification of the underlying forcing from anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. Data-trend-analysis confirms that first occurrence of end of September ice-free conditions in the Arctic Ocean can be expected within the next three years. From that point the ice-free window will widen rapidly as the feedback dynamics increase in power. The second part of the analysis reviews a set of implications and consequences of rapid Arctic change: · Impact on the Tundra includes albedo feedback and release of CO2 and methane to the atmosphere. · Sea-bed release of methane adds to the Tundra feedback. · Exponential change in melt-rate of the Greenland ice-cap has major implications for change in sea-level around the world. · The accelerating disturbance of the jet-stream drives another energy feedback, disrupts weather patterns across the northern hemisphere and threatens food production from the grain belt over three continents. · Free from global dimming, which is temporally blocking temperature change in the planetary system as a whole, the Arctic offers a foretaste of global climate dynamics of the future.
Posted on: Tue, 30 Jul 2013 14:49:28 +0000
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