IMPORTANT FRIDAY POST: (Go to the end for the forecast if you dont like detail. If you do like detail, read on): Ive been mentioning for months now the majority of this Winters storms would likely come in January and February. I also began mentioning last Spring and Summer that this years overall Winter pattern would be very similar to the Winter of 1977-78. Other mets that I highly respect, saw 76-77, 02-03, and 09-10 as Winters that closely resemble what we have going on this year. I know those mets are much smarter than me, and WAY more knowledgeable, but I have believed since last Spring that 77-78 would more show the way to this Winter season than those other 3 Winters mentioned above, though I believe they also give big clues. So why do I have so much belief in January and February this year? Its because January and February of 1978 gave me all the clues I needed. Real quick, lets look at Winter weather from January 1 - February 17, 1978 from a DFW standpoint; which btw, was the coldest and snowiest Winter in DFW history! After that, I want to point out the maps that will help you understand what I look at: -First off, December 1977 was very much like this December. It had a couple of weeks where it warmed up from a very cool November. The second half of December, the temps began a gradual downturn until an Arctic blast hit at the very end of the month. -On January 1, 1978, the southern sections of DFW on south received the first snow of the season that totaled around 1-3. - The week of January 8th had a minor ice storm hit DFW, with worse conditions to the west and north. -The week of January 15th brought a good snow of 3-5 across DFW. -The week of January 22nd brought 2 snows to DFW. One was 3-4, with the north side receiving more, and the other was 3-5, with the south side receiving more. -The week of January 29th had a pretty darn good ice storm on top of un-melted snow. Late that week, it snowed again, but the temp was above freezing so nothing stuck in my part of the woods, though other places received minor accumulations. -The week of the 12th of February also had 2 snows. The first was 3-5 of snow on Wednesday the 15th. By Thursday, much of that snow melted with temps in the mid-30s. -On February 17th, 7-9 of snow fell all over DFW. That Winter rocked us with one Arctic outbreak after another during January and February, and there were 9 Winter precip events in DFW over a 6 week period. 6 of those storms greatly impacted travel across the region. Thats an average of 1 per week, which is huge for DFW! For the most part, the global ocean oscillations and temperatures are today as close to 1978 as one can get. Look at the maps below. The first one is a combination of 1977-78 and 2002-03. The second one is what we look like right now. Almost identical in the northern and central Pacific, and most of the northern Atlantic! Thats why my forecast is the way it is. Look to the past for how to forecast in the future! We have not seen this kind of setup since 1978, though 2003 was close. Having said that, nothing ever happens exactly the same. Those snowstorms of 78 could have easily been 50 miles further north or south, and that would have completely changed the dynamic of that Winter, though it still would have been cold. This is one of the reasons Im so bullish on Arctic outbreaks and Winter storms affecting the SP over the next 2+ months. It will not be exactly like 78.....could be more or less.....but the parameters are very much the same, so Im expecting similar impact. THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS WEEK INTO NEW YEARS AND BEYOND: -Look for a cool front to impact the SP early Christmas week, with a small chance of light precip, possibly even light snow, across the panhandles. -Warmer mid-week going into Christmas Day (probably no White Christmas). -First Canadian front should come through somewhere from Christmas Day to Friday sometime. There is still some disagreement as to how cold that air will be, but Im trending colder than the models are suggesting, because thats what the pattern is dictating. -Next weekend, there is a good possibility of a Winter storm affecting parts of the SP. Details are still sketchy, but Im keeping my eye on it. It really deserves notice. -******Sometime from next weekend into New Years, a gigantic Arctic/Siberian blast will affect the SP. The models are showing it hitting and running, but Im telling you, the pattern were going to hits us with big Arctic outbreaks that hit and hold. They lock in for several days. This is also the type of pattern that reinforces Arctic air every few days. Once it hits, it aint going nowhere for days! -Of course, all of the outbreaks will have a Winter storm or two. Where those storms are is the question. Do understand that not all Winter storms will affect us, but many should over the next 8-10 weeks, as will numerous Arctic outbreaks. The outbreak coming before New Years will be the first of many, though there will be brief warm-ups between outbreaks. -The models are just blowing up storms all over the US for next week and beyond, so theres no way to key in on any of them. Im just saying the overall pattern has a history from 1978 that shows multiple Winter storms here in the SP. The devil is in the details. I will keep you updated as we close out 2014. #winterstorms #arcticoutbreaks #texasweather #oklahomaweather #winterweather
Posted on: Fri, 19 Dec 2014 16:52:05 +0000
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