IMPORTANT! Listen up! Ive been saying this to yall for a bit now, do not even think about buying as an INVESTOR! Youll hear pundits on TV saying how this is a buying opportunity, theyll tell you that you should be getting your shopping list together! That PCLN is their favorite over $500 stock, even though its worth about $200 to $400 and its trading at $1150. Theyll tell you every time the market has dipped its been a wonderful buying opportunity! And, you know what? They are right, it HAS BEEN! And, it may be still, but I dont think so and they may be right and I may be crazy... BUT, it doesnt matter because the thing is, the market always rebounds until it doesnt rebound anymore! Because this is the time where investors like YOU get KILLED, where your life blood and capital get sucked out of you by greedy brokers and analysts who issue BUY ratings on LNKD despite anyone with half a brain knowing that LNKD is more likely to be $50 than $250 in our lifetime. Do not be the suckers chasing stuff DOWN, please, I urge you. Ive been through this type of thing for 15 years. Catching falling knives is a fools game. Let me ask you something, do you think that stock prices have even a 20% correlation to P/E ratios? Nope, not in my book, market gyrations are based on one thing and ONE THING ONLY! TRENDS SENTIMENT Thats it, folks. And, when sentiment turns, and it appears that it has, then the market is NOT a buy, it is a SELL ANY RALLY! You want to own TSLA? You really think its on sale at $200? Be real, if it were $25 maybe itd be on sale. Im not a Bull or Bear, Im a TREND TRADER and my career and success have all been garnered because I watch Market Sentiment. And, right now market sentiment is awful, and not in a contrarian lets BUY BUY BUY kinda way, quite the opposite. So, please, do yourself a favor, dont put together any shopping lists unless its for groceries or for Christmas and Hanukah. We will play ample long side Call Option trades here for bounces, but as an investor? Please, let the idiots and analysts (who are idiots) tell you what a great buying opportunity it is and let them buy buy buy. I could be wrong, but my gut and my experience tell me that ANY rally here for now is a DEAD CAT bounce and thats all. And, the shopping list, if you want to make one or two is for stocks that have Dead Cat bounces and on bounces you want to SHORT them harder! Thats my take, take it for what you think its worth, I just want to be clear because when sentiment turns INVESTORS are always the ones who get crushed because they try to catch Falling Knives thinking that GOOG is a buy buy buy because its down 20%. Its not, the same as AAPL wasnt. Once momentum is broken my experience is your best bet is to go WITH the downside bias until it returns, not try to recreate magic that doesnt exist anymore. Market value is an illusion, dont be the sucker to buy into thin air. I always compare it to the old Road Runner cartoons where the Road Runners momentum carries him off the edge of the mountain and he goes Beep Beep and looks down and realizes there is no more land for him to run on...so he falls straight down... Beep Beep...look out belowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww! See yall next week, nice way to end the week catching ISRG and LNKD for beastly moves! Lets see if we can catch the market both ways next week. If you want to take a SHOT, meaning a GAMBLE, then buy a small lot of SPY puts, the $183s for April 17th and hedge with 1/2 the amount of the $181 SPY Calls. We should get a big gap Monday and if we do my guess is its DOWN, If not, youll lose but youll be hedged with the Calls. If we get a really bad gap down youll capture it this way as well potentially. Just a thought, thats all I can give ya, Im likely playing that for myself. Rock on and RULE! Oh, thats called a STRANGLE btw,though your bias is clearly for a downside move... Into close today, could go either way, my guess is lower but we could see some short covering as well since shorts have made a ton of money this week... ROck on and RULE! Waxie
Posted on: Fri, 11 Apr 2014 19:04:44 +0000
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