INTERNATIONAL WEEKLY # 03 (13.02.2014 — 04.03.2014) 04.03.2014 KEY THEME ANALYSIS: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE INCAPACITY OF THE EU, NATO AND THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL, RUSSIA HAS BEGUN ARMED AGGRESSION AGAINST UKRAINE Almost daily phone calls of Barack Obama, Angela Merkel, David Cameron and Herman Van Rompuy to Vladimir Putin lead to only one result: the Russian dictator became finally convinced that in case of the Russian military invasion of Ukraine, the Western response would be as sluggish as it had been in 1930s during the German invasion of Central and Eastern European countries. The heads of the leading powers preferred to ‘believe’ Putin’s promises to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine. On February 28, 2014 at the UN Security Council, Russia’s spokesman Vitaly Churkin made it clear that Russia considers the events in Crimea as its internal affairs, and wouldn’t allow any ‘imposed’ international mediation. The UN Security Council turned out to be incapable of situations when its permanent member (Russia) is the aggressor. Moreover, the members of the Security Council didn’t even try to bring to a vote a resolution to put on Moscow at least moral responsible for the aggression against a sovereign state of 46 million people. The Russian authorities have also refused to hold consultations in the framework of the security guarantees for Ukraine under the Budapest Memorandum. Thus Moscow has confirmed publicly that these ‘guarantees’ are worthless, and not only on the behalf of Russia, but on the behalf of the U.S. and the UK also, as well as France and China, who had provided similar ‘guarantees’ for Ukraine. Disregard for the security guarantees for Ukraine may lead to a new round of nuclear arms race in the world, because now all countries, especially Iran, realize that only own nuclear forces can protect against external aggression. The greatest ambition of Barack Obama in the field of nuclear disarmament has been buried. The inadequacy of the activity of the new Ukrainian government, the EU and NATO (while no one really expects any efficiency from the OSCE and the UN) is especially obvious, given the predictability of the invasion scenario, which had been previously worked out by Russia in Georgia (2008), and by Germany in the Sudetenland (1938). Despite the repeated warnings by famous American, European, Russian, Ukrainian politicians and experts, not one step has been taken to prevent this scenario in Ukraine. The international observers’ mission in Crimea has not been established in due time; government buildings and major roads have not been taken under protection; nothing has been done to prevent the penetration of the Russian raiders, whose mission was to occupy government buildings in Eastern and Southern regions of Ukraine. One should note that the Russians occupied Crimea step by step, taking into account the response of the international community. The failure of the latter to respond resulted in the increase of the Kremlins appetite. On February 23, at the demonstration in Sevastopol, Russian citizen Alexey Chaly was ‘elected’ as a ‘People’s Mayor’; at the same time Russian militaries blocked the entrance to the city. This might indicate the original intention of the Kremlin to occupy only Sevastopol. In four days (!) the Kremlin became sure that the Ukrainian authorities and the international community would not respond; so the Russian military continued the invasion, occupying the buildings of the Crimean parliament and government in Simferopol. Incidentally, these buildings were still not under protection! In the presence of the Russian militaries, a puppet government of Crimea was formed from the members of the marginal pro-Russian party (which had got only 4% of the votes of Crimeans at the elections). This ‘government’ appointed the referendum on changing the legal status of Crimea, and appealed to Putin for support. On March 1, at Putin’s request, the Russian Parliament unanimously agreed to military intervention into Ukraine. No appropriate measures were taken to prevent the spread of the Abkhazian / Crimean scenario to the other regions of Ukraine. The Russian secret service organized the penetration of the Russian raiders into Ukraine as well as the arming of the local pro-Russian extremists. From March 1, these armed forces started making attempts to seize power in Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson. The police did almost nothing to prevent their attacks. In Kherson only the activity of local civil activists prevented the seizure of the Regional State Administration building by the pro-Russian extremists. Moscow’s refusal to recognize the new Ukrainian government, and the statement of the Russian Parliament on the ‘illegitimacy’ of the forthcoming presidential election in Ukraine (dated for May 25), as well as the course of events in the Eastern and Southern regions indicate that the Kremlin’s ultimate goal is to destabilize the whole Ukrainian territory, and to bring so-called ‘Russian peacekeepers’ with a possible return to Kyiv of Yanukovych’s puppet government. The immediate Russian goal was to take control over Sevastopol, and it was fulfilled on February 23; and subsequently the whole of Crimea was occupied. Moscow’s next steps depend on the effectiveness of Russian raiders together with pro-Russian separatists, as well as on the ability of the Ukrainian government and the international community to oppose the Kremlin’s plans. The few days’ pauses after each aggressive step indicates that Moscow is looking for the ‘red line’ which might lead to a concrete response from the West. If there is no effective response, the Russians will move to the next Rubicon. On February 26 the Speaker of the Council of the Russian Federation Valentina Matviyenko denied the possibility of military intervention into Ukraine as ‘impossible’. On March 1 the Council of the Russian Federation unanimously supported Putin’s request to send troops to Ukraine. The sooner the U.S. and European countries respond with real actions (not with words) – the sooner Russia will stop the aggression. It is absolutely clear that Putin will not dare to fight against NATO forces due to the huge disparity. American commentators believe that the entering of the U.S. navy into the Black Sea might have a chilling effect on Putin.[1] The EU’s warning to reduce the purchases of Russian gas might also be an effective mechanism of influence, because the Russian economy is critically dependent on the gas revenues. A sobering effect might be achieved by the promise to admit Ukraine and Georgia into NATO immediately. Let’s recall that in 1952 Greece and Turkey were urgently admitted to the Alliance due to the threat of Soviet aggression. The world community needs to understand that Russia is fighting not against Ukraine, but against the whole system of Western values, which Ukraine is willing to join. If the EU and NATO respond only with statements now, the Kremlin will invade the Baltic States in a year or two (because many ethnic Russians live there also). And then the NATO members will have to fight, according to Article Five of the Treaty. At the present stage, it might be enough to bring limited international peacekeeping forces to Ukraine or at least to make a clear warning to do it – just to bring Putin down to earth, the dictator, who is rapidly losing common sense and is making a new World War possible. [1] Putin’s Ukraine gambit. – washingtonpost/opinions/charles-krauthammer-putins-ukraine-gambit/2014/02/27/93ca1b26-9fe0-11e3-9ba6-800d1192d08b_story.html. Statement by the President on Ukraine. – whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/02/28/statement-president-ukraine. [5] Readout of President Obama’s Call with President Putin. – whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/01/readout-president-obama-s-call-president-putin. [6] G-7 Leaders Statement. – whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/03/02/g-7-leaders-statement. [7] North Atlantic Council statement on the situation in Ukraine. – nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_107681.htm.
Posted on: Mon, 17 Mar 2014 09:39:47 +0000
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