IS GREENBAY-N.ORLEANS LINE TO GOOD TO BE TRUE? MUST READ!... Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints Through seven games, Aaron Rodgers has compiled the second best quarterback rating in the league (117.3) trailing only Peyton Manning (119.0). These exceptional numbers have helped Packer fans “relax” as they sit in a tie atop the NFC North standings at 5-2. For the Saints, this season can only be described as an utter disappointment. Although former MVP Drew Brees ranks second in the league in passing yards per game, his QB rating ranks just 17th — putting him in the bottom half of all signal callers. This shaky performance, combined with a porous pass defense, has led the Saints to a 2-4 record through six games. Despite these two teams moving in opposite directions, the Saints actually opened as 2-point home favorites at CRIS for this Sunday Night showdown. For that reason, it should come as a surprise to nobody that the Packers are receiving 79% of spread bets despite the public’s propensity to pound favorites. Since 2003 only three favorites have ever received such little public support: Jacksonville Jaguars -1: 21% of spread bets (9/30/12 vs. Cincinnati) Jacksonville Jaguars -3: 20% of spread bets (9/11/11 vs. Tennessee) Carolina Panthers -3: 21% of spread bets (10/24/04 vs. San Diego) Although all three of those contrarian favorites lost, we do have a few sharp money indicators on the Saints. Despite this one-sided betting, CRIS has only moved their line from New Orleans -2 to -1.5 which is a fairly unimportant change. We have also triggered a reverse line movement alert on the Saints at BetEagle (6-4 +1 units won this season). Finally, our research indicates that favorites have been historically undervalued in prime time games. When a line seems too good to be true, it’s usually because it is. This game provides an excellent opportunity to buy low on the Saints and sell high on the Packers. It’s also noteworthy that the Saints future odds at 5Dimes (+4000) are better than a number of teams with superior records, which indicates that oddsmakers still believe in New Orleans. Fading the trendy underdog has been a profitable strategy in other sports, so don’t be surprised if New Orleans gets off the schneid with a big home victory this weekend.
Posted on: Sat, 25 Oct 2014 05:16:47 +0000
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