ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY OCTOBER 28TH 2013 Good morning all. Here is the report from the noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday October 28th 2013. With the major storm system blowing itself away from SE as I type all models show that the weather reverts to a more standard form of Westerly winds, sunshine and showers. Some of the showers will be heavy and squally and perhaps with thunder. All models then show a brief quieter spell towards midweek as a weak ridge crosses East. However, this is looking increasingly short-lived even for the South as further deep Low pressure moves in from the West and bring spells of strong to gale force winds and heavy rain and squally showers at times in time for the weekend. It will also feel much chillier than of late. GFS then moves through its second part with continued unsettled and often windy weather with spells of rain and squally showers mixed with very brief drier interludes. UKMO today closes its run with a deep Low over the Irish Sea with strong cyclonic winds around Britain with spells of heavy rain and showers and brief sunny intervals. It will feel rather colder than of late. GEM today also shows a very deep Low over the UK next weekend followed by a rather cold and unstable NW then West flow, still strong. Rain will be most prevalent over the weekend and the start of the new week before more Southern areas see rather less late in the run. It will feel very chilly in the wind. NAVGEM shows an unsettled period too with rain and strong winds at times as Low pressure top and tails the UK at the end of its run. ECM shows unsettled weather too with strong winds at times as low pressure spirals across the UK at the weekend. Thereafter and into the new week further wet and windy weather looks distinctly possible as winds remain strong to gale westerly at times with rain at times. The GFS Ensembles show a very mediocre pattern as far as temperatures are concerned with temperatures alternating somewhat above and below the average. Rainfall and wind strengths remain the biggest factors over the UK with frequent bouts of rain and strong winds shown for all. The Jet Stream remains the major driving force of the UK weather over the period with s very strong flow over the Atlantic and crossing East in the vicinity of the British Isles maintained for a considerable time to come. In Summary the storm of the last 24 hours may be moving away this morning but the prospect of further very windy weather with strong gusts remains a risk over the next few weeks. With a very powerful Jet stream looking determined to continue roaring across the Atlantic towards Britain further deep low pressure later this week could provide the ingredients for some more disruption in places. In addition rainfall is looking copious and flooding will inevitably become an ingredient towards media coverage as the period of this run evolves. Source and credit ............... norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm
Posted on: Mon, 28 Oct 2013 13:43:33 +0000
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