IT’S DONE, EDGAR CHAGWA LUNGU IS ZAMBIA’S SIXTH PRESIDENT Lucky Mulusa Edgar Chagwa Lungu is our next Republican President. Our endorsement as the RB Team should not be taken lightly and there is absolutely nothing HH can do to reverse the outcome to go his way. The Eastern Province’s acceptance of the EL candidature cancels out HH’s head start of an almost 90% support from Southern Province. Luapula Province is a narrow strip of land that is densely populated. Distance to polling stations is shorter than those in Western and North Western Provinces. This means that for every 1 person in either Western or North Western Provinces who struggles to go and vote due to distance rains and floods at this time of the year, 10 voters in Luapula have access to their polling stations with ease – end result – Luapula cancels out North Western and Western Provinces’ HH’s advantage. Then Edgar sprints forward with Northern/Muchinga provinces almost unopposed. Remember that Northern Muchinga is shared between MMD in the Northern Mambwe/Namwanga areas while PF had the central and southern Bemba/Bisa areas. These have now been combined and bagged for EL. During my campaigns, I also noticed that while HH is popular in Mumbwa and the Southern parts of Kabwe - from Kabwe Central to Serenje, however, it is MMD/PF who are popular. So Edgar bags 75% of Central Province. All the HH endorsements count for nothing compared to the EL endorsements. The RB Team wipes out all the HH endorsements. Namugala and Sinfukwe, individually for instance, have more influence than Mutati and Mucheleka put together. While HH is receiving quantity endorsements, EL is receiving few but quality endorsements. E.g in Eastern province, HH received endorsements from Victoria Kalima, Levy Ngoma and the Mkaika MP Hon. Phiri. Edgar received endorsements from RB, HRH Mpezeni, other chiefs, the rest of the MPs, the MMD Provincial, Districts and constituency committees and a voter population that matches Southern province. To achieve a white wash, RB just needs to appear with EL at rallies in Lusaka and on the Copperbelt – that will completely seal it. It is also important to note that Zambians are very conservative people who take time to change. Edgar’s support base is mostly amongst the 24 years to 34 years old and surprisingly amongst the above 65 year old. These are assured voters. The 24 to 34 years old are the 1 million voters who ushered in the PF and as Fred Mmembe said, “Edgar is likely to win because the Sata voters have not demobilized”. HH’s big support base lies amongst those aged between 18 and 24 years old. These were below 18 years old when voter registration was last conducted. So HH may show some impressive crowds in Western and North Western provinces, Lusaka and the Copperbelt, but they constitute potential voters and not real voters for they are not registered but are eager to vote and are active on social media. End result, they vote on Muvi TV and here HH wins but then it’s just to make oneself happy for a moment. I have participated in elections either as a voter or as a candidate since 1991. One thing comes to mind - that each time Zambians want a government change, the word change reverberates through out the townships and communities. No matter how much you try to reason with a voter, the response would be we want change! Not a single person person has uttered the word change!
Posted on: Wed, 07 Jan 2015 05:13:14 +0000
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