In 2012 the Tauri Group published a retrospective analysis of 1000+ technological forecasts. Data sets are attached in the PDF. Among the results are: Six of the eight [forecasting] methodologies [studied] are more accurate than... random guess. Forecasts based on numeric trends are more accurate than forecasts based on opinion. Forecasts generated from quantitative trend analyses have statistically higher success rates than do forecasts generated from other methodologies.
Posted on: Sat, 29 Mar 2014 00:05:54 +0000
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