In 2013, Donnelly used mathematical modelling to conclude only 5.7% of cattle breakdowns could be attributed to wildlife... Last year, Warwick University created the first, large-scale model of Bovine TB epidemiology to conclude that badger culls would make no impact on disease incidence in cattle... Last week, Queen Mary University London created a mathematical model based on cattle movement data which found that a shorter testing frequency and changes to housing have the greatest chance of controlling the disease. But what are mathematical models and why should we bother paying attention to them? Mathematical models can project how infectious diseases progress to show the likely outcome of an epidemic and help inform health interventions... Basically, transmission interactions in a population are very complex (especially when there are multiple hosts of different species) it can be difficult to comprehend the large scale dynamics of disease spread without the formal structure of a mathematical model. So, when there are limitations or gaps in knowledge, or if a large-scale trial would be impossible, unethical or expensive; these methods are indispensable... Which is why theyre used for human health issues, most recently for ebola control... en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_modelling_of_infectious_disease
Posted on: Tue, 27 Jan 2015 07:16:31 +0000
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