In the first round, Gilas will play Jordan, Chinese-Taipei and Saudi Arabia. In the second round, it will play Japan, Qatar and Lebanon as Hong Kong is expected to be ousted early. If Gilas finishes No. 1, it will play No. 4 from Groups C and D in the knockout quarterfinals. The probability is Kazakhstan or India will finish No. 4 in Groups C and D. If Gilas ends up No. 2, it will play No. 3 from Groups C and D which is likely to be Korea. The danger is if Gilas finishes No. 3 or No. 4, it will play China or Iran in the knockout quarterfinals. If Gilas picked Group D, it will probably wind up No. 3 or No. 4 in Groups C and D with China, Iran and Korea in the mix. That would mean playing No. 1 or No. 2 from Groups A and B, probably Jordan or Lebanon with Qatar or Japan an outside shot. Black explained that the probability is higher for Gilas to beat Korea or Kazakhstan or India in a knockout quarterfinal pairing than to defeat Jordan or Lebanon. “The key is finishing first or second entering the knockout quarterfinals,” said Black. “To do it, we must beat Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and Japan. If we don’t beat those teams, we don’t deserve to be in the semifinals.” Racela pointed out that if and when Gilas makes it to the Final Four, there will be two chances to pocket one of three tickets up for grabs to represent Asia at the FIBA World Cup in Spain next year. A win in the semifinals guarantees a ticket to Spain because it will mean a first or second place finish in the FIBA-Asia tournament. A loss will set up a do-or-die battle for the last ticket to Spain. Read more: philstar/sports/2013/06/12/952960/gilas-choice-based-probabilities
Posted on: Wed, 12 Jun 2013 09:03:27 +0000
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