In the theory of contentious politics by Charles Tilly, the strategy employed by CORD in the National Dialogue debate, that is now leading to Saba Saba is called the “Dilemma Action”. This is an action, or series of actions that place the target, in this case UhuRuto, in a situation where any response made will result in a negative outcome for the target. CORD’s attempt is to create a “lose-lose” framework for the UhuRuto, and a “win-win” framework for itself. If UhuRuto gives in to their demands, they take credit and gain more ground to pile even more pressure; if UhuRuto resists, they continue to have a platform around which to mobilize and organize against UhuRuto. Dilemma actions can be tactical or strategic, and have two major components: • Creating or identifying an issue that is meaningful to the public and around which people will rally. The most effective issues are usually related the opponents’ actions that contradict widely held beliefs and values. In the National Dialogue campaign, this defines the five issues that CORD’s campaign rotates around. • Designing the Dilemma Action based capacities of the movement and the target. The mass”barazas” and street demonstrations of the 1990s against a system made of people who have never fought mass street battles and who are also just settling into their new found comfort of the “tyrant of numbers” in electoral politics and governance organs like the Senate and Parliament was therefore a clever idea. The success or failure of CORD on this saba saba campaign will however depend on four proximate conditions: • The emergence of coalitions of more contenders making exclusive claims on UhuRuto as a specific target; • The expansion of commitment to those claims by members of the population beyond the traditional CORD support base; • The formation of coalitions between CORD and other groups; • Repressive incapacity of UhuRuto as the target of the campaigns. Monday July 7th would be what Maxwell Malcom calls in his book, “The Tipping Point!” Is CORD leadership up to the task? The jury is out there, and it is only three days to go! WanjikũRevolution Kenya,Charles Odhiambo, Ngunjiri Wambugu, Hesbon Omollo, Moses Oburu, Francis Onyango KOwuor, Thomas Chemelil, Silas Chepkeres Wainaina Jakakimba, Mokinyi Lenna, Lucy Mworia, Wamuyu Gatheru, Emmanuel Dennis, Lydia Mathia, Lydia Limbe, James Aggrey Mwamu, Mwalimu Mati, Mwalimu Mutinda Kavemba, Apc Awuor Ponge, Jared Ochiel, Leo Shabaan, Nyamodi Ochieng-Nyamogo,
Posted on: Thu, 03 Jul 2014 06:18:04 +0000