In theory the one person we should never, ever, lie to is ourselves. Surely it is as counter-productive as deliberately shooting yourself in the foot or plunging a hot toasting fork into your eye. But look around. A Dhaka Tribune report suggests that pro-government economists do not seem to agree with the fears of dwindling growth rate because of political unrest. “In a meeting of the government’s Fiscal Coordination Council on November 12, a planning ministry official was reportedly barred from warning that economic indices might collapse if political unrest continued”, says the DT report. The other members of the council disagreed. They said growth will not suffer because people are not involved with the current movement. Consider the facts. Growth has declined over the last three years from 6.7% in FY11 to 6.2% in FY12 and 6.03% in FY13; political chaos lasted only two months in 2006 whereas this time, it is already four months and counting; and there are many other tell-tale signs of further growth slowdown. Yet they think growth will be 6.6% or may be more this year. Perhaps we deceive ourselves in ways we can’t clearly perceive? Psychological experiments show different gradations of self-deception, all the way up to its purest form, in which people think and act as though their incorrect belief is completely true, totally disregarding any hints from reality. Not only will many people happily lie to themselves if given a reason, but they will only look for evidence that confirms their comforting self-deception, and then totally believe in the lies they are telling themselves. Emotion and motivation can, without our knowing it, bias our assessment of evidence for beliefs. There are two forms of self-deception: the straight form, in which we believe what we want to be true, and the twisted form, in which we believe what we wish to be false. Unfdortunately, the Fiscal Coordination Council suffers from the straight form. The twisted form may have been more helpful for the economy. When some individuals suffer from self-deception, we need not worry as much as when an important policy making body does. The latter is a matter of serious concern because if they really believe the economy will remain unhurt, they will not feel any urge either to help dissipate the unrest or to prepare to cope with its consequences. We need divine help.
Posted on: Sun, 01 Dec 2013 11:18:39 +0000
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