India goes towards -0- Power instead of Super Power?! IS INDIA HEADED ZIMBABWE’S WAY? Swapan Dasgupta. Amid the prevailing cacophony over the Gujarat, Bihar, Sen and Manmohan models of development, I am tempted to ask whether, given the way India is meandering, the real fascination of the putrefying Delhi Establishment is for the Zimbabwean model of political economy. Zimbabwe is a perfect case study of what happens when a cynical and self-obsessed ruler, who has been at the helm for more than three decades, combines populism with cronyism: he transforms a vibrant country into a basket case. Everything that can go wrong with a country has gone wrong for Zimbabwe. Democracy has been reduced to a manipulative and brutal farce; the ruling ZANU-PF has promoted cronyism to a staggering degree; a once vibrant agricultural sector has collapsed; mining has been totally mortgaged to China whose business practices make Cecil Rhodes appear an angel; and the currency collapsed to such an extent that it has had to be replaced by the US Dollar. Indeed, the path travelled by Zimbabwe after white minority rule came to an end in 1980 sometimes makes you see the virtues of Rhodesia. Of course I am exaggerating in seeing parallels between India and Zimbabwe. We still have a long way to go before the Governor of the Reserve Bank throws up his hands in despair and recommends the abolition of a currency whose value is shrinking with each passing day. Yet, the virtue of polemical exaggeration lies in its ability to highlight the steady downhill journey of a country that was — only six or seven years ago — readying to emerge as an economic power of consequence and which counted itself in the league of the first ten countries. The irreverent social media asides about the Indian Rupee having overtaken Rahul Gandhi and approaching the septuagenarian and octogenarian levels of the Prime Minister and the titular head of the NDA, may be brushed aside as treacherous talk. But the fact remains that India is only a gypsum wall away from having to formally approach the IMF for a proverbial bailout package. If the grapevine of Lutyens’ Delhi is to be believed, the preparatory work for such an eventuality has already begun and may have to be speeded up if India’s sovereign ratings are further downgraded. True, the Government is fully alive to the grim state of the economy and has made various announcements to facilitate the flow of foreign direct investments. In addition, the Finance Minister has given many public assurances that the interest rates for lending by the banks will not increase. Unfortunately, P Chidambaram’s is never the last word on the subject. The banks will do what is commercially prudent and raising interest rates is one of the available options before them — a move that will put a further squeeze on the manufacturing and services sector. As it is, layoffs are being reported on a wide scale from the financial and manufacturing sectors. Worse, potential foreign investors aren’t convinced-thanks to the Land Acquisition Bill and Food Security Bill that are in the legislative queue in Parliament-of the Government’s ability to re-establish a wholesome economic environment. The result, as a foreigner explained to me, is that foreign investors are reacting in a very Indian way to India: they are watching and waiting. Maybe there is a cynical belief that the task of formally informing the country that the party is over is being left to next Government. But that assumes Congress has mentally prepared itself for an electoral drubbing. Unfortunately, even that isn’t the case. Last week, the Congress was gung-ho after its Working Committee gave the green signal for a new Telangana State. For a full 24 hours Congress partisans delighted in the re-conquest of at least a part of the united Andhra Pradesh which, at one time, seemed totally lost to the YSR Congress and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi. Yes, an adverse fallout was expected in Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra but the overall feeling was that the Congress had cut its losses and would reduce the quantum of its seat deficit in the Deccan. Unfortunately, there is a difference between granting statehood in good grace and doing the right thing at gunpoint. The impression that a tottering Centre can be browbeaten at election time has led to every single separatist movement, whether for Gorkhaland, Bodoland or what have you, flexing its muscles. India is experiencing a series on mini explosions all over the country with the aim of arm-twisting a Government that is trying to be too clever by half. From all accounts, the fallout of the Telangana announcement is going to be far messier than the Congress strategists calculated.The sense of drift and despondency is palpable despite a brave attempt by the Congress Ministers to talk up their performance. In Uttar Pradesh, the returns from the creation of a goon raj draped in a religious flag has backfired horribly on the Akhilesh Yadav Government; in Bihar, Nitish Kumar is up to his neck in governance-related problems for which he can’t blame Narendra Modi; in Rajasthan, the wild spending spree isn’t fetching the crowds for Ashok Gehlot’s yatra; and in Delhi, the State with the most pronounced anti-incumbency, there are definite indications that the Opposition may undertake self-correction. India, it would seem, is ripe for new ideas and a fresh approach. Fortunately, the yearning to make a clean break from the present rot is coming from below. That is about the only note of optimism.
Posted on: Mon, 05 Aug 2013 12:36:10 +0000
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