Iraq, Turkey and the Presidential Election / Asharq Al Awsat By Aylin Kocaman “Is Iraq being split into three?’ That was the caption in most news reports last week. It is actually a story going back 1,400 years, a hadith of our Prophet (saas). In the light of developments today, the world is watching it gradually happen. I wish to concentrate more on division centered on the Kurdish region than on division centered around ISIS. As readers will remember, Barzani frequently spoke of independence before ISIS’s conquests were on the agenda. The Iraqi Kurdish regime was unable to receive the 17% revenue of Northern Iraqi petrol it deserved and was unable to agree with the central administration on transportation of that oil. The Iraqi Constitution permits independence for autonomous regions following a referendum, and it was more or less predictable what choice the people, less than happy with Maliki’s biased approach, would make. ISIS came, and the picture changed. As the central administration lost influence, the peshmerga came to the fore. The Baghdad administration sought their help to defend the country, and their share of the oil, which had not been provided for a long time, was raised to 25%. The national administration became dependent on an autonomous regime. Let us now turn to Turkey. During this process, the question was always being asked what would Turkey do if an Iraqi Kurdistan were founded to its south? It is a fact that Ankara has enjoyed close commercial and political relations with the Kurdish administration of Northern Iraq ever since 2008. If the question of independence for the Kurdish region crops up, this will mean that the Maliki regime, which has always raised commercial problems over the passage of Iraqi oil to Turkey, is no longer in the picture. Some circles interpret this political and trade ally acting independently as favoring us. However, there is also an ideological side to the issue. The founding of a state of Kurdistan to our south will under some circumstances strengthen those who wish this to succeed in the ideological sense in Turkey, too. In their eyes, the Iraqi Kurds wish to split away from the central Iraqi administration because of Maliki’s repression, yet the Kurds in Turkey have no such aspiration. They support Turkish territorial integrity. That is true but it must not be forgotten that the PKK is also a factor in Turkey, seeking to repress the Kurds and that will adopt Iraqi Kurdistan as a model for this terrorist group to split Turkey up and as also a source of support. The fact that the Iraqi Kurds are now in a military alliance with the PKK as a result of the ISIS threat needs to be added as a footnote. However, such a scenario happening in Turkey depends on certain conditions. These indirectly concern the presidential elections in August; A first will be recorded in August this year as the people choose a new president. Turkey’s two main opposition parties have come together and are backing a joint candidate: Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu. Middle Eastern and Islamic world analysts know him well. İhsanoğlu was born in Cairo and is a professor whose origins lie in al-Azhar. He is the first elected president of the organization of the Islamic Conference, a post he has occupied for the last 11 years. He is a respected, educated and modern person. Where he is most criticized is his lack of political background. Would it be right to entrust Turkey, under fire from all sides, to a non-political person? The governing party’s candidate is as yet unclear, but various circles are saying that the system in Turkey will change when this candidate is elected; the move to a presidential system has long been discussed. They say that Turkey would be divided into federations and that the elected president would be the country’s chairman, as in the USA. If such a change happens, the foundation of an Iraqi Kurdistan would become a grave threat to Turkey because a federated southeast region in Turkey would be under the control of pro-PKK parties, scenarios that have so far failed would be made reality and the region would become part of a Kurdistan in the south. Therefore, the presidential system is a risky plan that should not currently be discussed for Turkey. At a time when Turkey is under fire from Syria and Iraq, when ISIS boasts that “we will also take Istanbul,” when our Black Sea neighbor Ukraine is still in turmoil and when the Black Sea is a risky stretch of water, it must remain an integral whole and be entrusted to a political figure. The most realistic option would seem to be for the current system -Abdullah Gül’s presidency- to continue. To return to Iraq, it must not be forgotten that Iraq’s wretched state stems from divisions and fragmentation. Seeking greater division will only serve those seeking an excuse for greater sectarian and ethnic divisions. Those who seek solutions in division are always mistaken. If the Islamic world wants a solution to its problems, it must be unified and united. This article has been published in Arabic and Arabic version can be read at aawsat/home/article/124571
Posted on: Wed, 02 Jul 2014 18:50:14 +0000
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