Is Separatism Dead? In 1995, Québeckers declined by a thin majority (50.6%) a referendum on sovereignty accompanied with an association with Canada. The participation rate was very high (94%), apparently a record in democratic states. More than ten years later, public support for a similar question is above 50%. A tougher question (on strict independence or complete separation) receives less support (35-40%). Support for the sovereigntist movement is high among the young and declines as age increases. Many reasons explain the rise in popularity of the sovereignty-association model. First, there is a generation effect: support for the sovereigntist movement is higher among today’s younger voters compared to former generations surveyed at the same age. Support is also higher among newly retired people, and, as they grow older, sovereigntists continue to support the dream of their youth. Second, there are demographic changes: analysts estimate that 400,000 elderly persons have died since 1995 (a majority of them federalists) and that among the more than one million new voters, two thirds intend to vote “yes” in an eventual referendum. Finally, support is increasing among immigrants, who are now better integrated into the Francophone majority in Québec. Does this mean that Québec will one day secede from Canada? It is difficult to predict the results of an election or of a referendum. For the moment, the poll results indicate the existence of a strongly shared national sentiment that could lead to the formation of a French speaking state in North America. It is interesting to note that the greatest shift is primarily in the new voters. Apparently, the inexperience of youth with the limited understanding of social responsibility are the main reasons for the surge of the "OUI" vote partnered with the decline of the experienced vote of the elderly who are passing away. Youth is categorized by exuberance and idealistic visions where logic is cast aside. Let us hope the "OUI" vote grows up.
Posted on: Fri, 28 Jun 2013 16:51:23 +0000
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