Islamic State tremors reach the US JOHN KEHOE AND JOHN KERIN 30 Aug 2014 AFR An Islamic State fighter brandishes a knife above captured Syrian troops after the battle for the Tabqa air base in Syria. Photo: AP Shirley Sotloff, the mother of American hostage Steven Sotloff, makes a direct video appeal to Islamic State to release her son. Photo: AFP The spectre of the danger of Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria is beginning to hit home in the United States. Miami teacher Shirley Sotloff this week took the unprecedented and risky step of launching an online video imploring Sunni militants to release her 31-year-old son from capture in Syria. “My son Steven is in your hands,” Ms Sotloff said in a message intended for IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. “As a mother, I ask your justice to be merciful and not punish my son for matters he has no control over.” The desperate plea – without the prior backing of the US government – was a last-ditch bid to save her son’s life. Steven Sotloff was seen on a YouTube video for the first time in more than a year last week, apparently kneeling in the same place where his former cellmate and fellow journalist James Foley was decapitated. The US and its allies are considering more aggressive and broader airstrikes in northern Iraq and possibly Syria against Islamic State militants. President Barack Obama confirmed on Thursday the Pentagon is preparing potential extra military actions against Islamic State insurgents in Iraq if a new unity government materialises and there is support from Sunni governments in the region. Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel last week called Islamic State an “imminent threat to every interest we have”. From Canberra Prime Minister Tony Abbott continues to flag Australia’s willingness to join any expanded US-led campaign against Islamic State fighters in Iraq and Syria and has been equally willing to lead international calls for stronger action against what he describes as “medieval barbarism”. Abbott was previously willing to deploy Australian special forces to save minority Yazidis on Mount Sinjar when genocide was feared – a threat that later dissipated. However, he insists, as does Obama, there will be “no boots on the ground” in any expanded campaign. The RAAF stands ready to provide Super Hornet strike fighters, C-17 and C-130 Hercules transport aircraft and Airbus KC30A refuellers, should the US make a request, and the joint Australia-US Pine Gap satellite tracking station is also supporting the campaign. The prime minister is still considering a request to join a seven-nation US-led effort to supply arms and equipment to the Kurdish Peshmerga to help them take up the fight to the militants in the north. Tougher procedures at domestic borders and planned tougher terror laws to stop returning jihadists launching attacks at home are also crucial to what Abbott calls his number one priority – the protection of Australian citizens. THREAT TO AUSTRALIA In the near term, the well-financed Islamic State is considered mainly a threat to the immediate region it operates in. But longer term, security experts worry it could follow in the footsteps of al-Qaeda and launch attacks against the Western world. “ISIS is clearly a threat to Australia, the United States and western Europe,” says Barry McCaffrey, a retired four star general who served in the US army for 32 years. “There is no question they will be at our throats when they get a chance.” Amid speculation of the potential for a more aggressive military US military operation in Iraq and Syria, the public comments from Obama and the White House have oozed caution. For some, in particular Republican John McCain, Obama is too cautious and not aggressive enough. However, war-weary Democrats and even Republican libertarian Rand Paul are urging restraint and not to get bogged down in another costly war. But for Obama the US has learned a lesson. “History teaches us of the dangers of overreaching, and spreading ourselves too thin, and trying to go it alone without international support, or rushing into military adventures without thinking through the consequences,” he said this week, partly in reference to the invasion of Iraq by predecessor George W. Bush. But conditionally he flagged that if political and diplomatic goals could be achieved in Iraq and in the neighbouring region, then the US would consider leading a coalition military campaign. “There may be a role for an international coalition providing additional air support for their operations,” he said. Obama wants a unity government in Iraq to placate Sunnis to whom Islamic State militants are aligned. “We’re urging Iraqis to forge the kind of inclusive government that can deliver on national unity, and strong security forces and good governance that are ultimately going to be the antidote against terrorists,” Obama said. Furthermore, Obama views it as highly desirable to have “buy in” Sunnis from the other neighbouring countries, particularly Saudia Arabia and the Gulf States. Secretary of State John Kerry is being dispatched to the region to build consensus against Islamic State. SUNNI SUPPORT Obtaining support of the Sunni tribes to disconnect from the Islamic State militants is viewed as critical. Otherwise Sunnis sympathetic to Islamic State will continue to harbour the terrorists. Islamic State accounts for only 5000 to 10,000 militants in Iraq. Its large numbers of tacit supporters and the potential recruitment of thousands more are what makes it a bigger problem. Since early August when the Washington launched a “limited” airstrike campaign in northern Iraq, the US has conducted just over 100 targeted airstrikes against Islamic State targets. About 1000 US military advisers are on the ground in Iraq assisting the Iraqi military and protecting Americans. If the US is to expand its campaign against Islamic State, it wants to do so with the support of a coalition of Middle East and international partners. Obama has talked up multilateralism and reliance on international institutions like NATO and the United Nations. Already seven other countries – Albania, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Italy, France and the United Kingdom have committed to provide Kurdish forces with arms and equipment to fight back against Islamic State. Obama will discuss options with world leaders at the NATO meeting in Wales next week and at Leaders Week at the United Nations in New York in late September. Abbott is yet to declare if he will attend. The talks coincide with climate change discussions which he is keen to avoid. The possibility of invading Syria is more vexed. There is a clear humanitarian case for doing so. The UN estimates 191,000 people in Syria have been killed between March 2011 and the end of April 2014. Most of these have been at the hands of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, but increasingly Islamic State militants are running rampant against the Syrian moderate opposition. Assad has enabled the Islamic State militants to roam freely in eastern Syria, to crush his opponents. The Syria-Iraq border area is fast becoming a safe harbour for Islamic State terrorists. THE SYRIA DILEMMA “Militarily speaking, it would be necessary to strike ISIS in Syria if you really want to decisively impact them,” says Charlie Dunlap, a retired US major general. But the problem for the US is that any campaign against Islamic State in Syria will benefit a sworn enemy in Assad as well as another adversary in Iran. The Syrians have demanded that the US consult on any planned air bombing within their borders, but the White House has definitively ruled out any consultation. Already a bipartisan group of lawmakers have written to House Speaker John Boehner calling for Congress to debate and vote on whether to grant permission for President Obama to take military action against Sunni militants in Iraq and Syria. Mr Obama originally sidestepped Congress by outlining a limited campaign. Whatever path the US and its allies choose, it will be fraught with the likelihood of let-down. William McCants, Brookings director of US relations with the Islamic world, says there is no easy or quick solution to the Islamic State problem. “Even those who offer complex and informed policy analysis can’t come up with a clear policy recommendation,” he says. “[You can] disagree with Obama’s Syria policy as I do, but don’t pretend the alternatives are obvious or would necessarily work better.” And so Abbott, fast becoming a national security prime minister like his predecessor John Howard and having made it clear where Australia stands, awaits a US call to action. In 2001, John Howard had to deal with the al-Qaeda threat and supporting the US in a conflict in Afghanistan post September 11. Abbott has chosen to lead on the two Malaysia Airlines disasters as well as the ongoing Syria/Iraq crisis. He describes the threat posed by the Islamic State militants as being as “near to pure evil as we are ever likely to see”. “It’s a humanitarian catastrophe and it’s a security nightmare ... and it does need to be dealt with,” he said on Friday. afr/p/world/islamic_state_tremors_reach_the_kucGYXa2BpgB8Mk4lotQhK
Posted on: Sat, 30 Aug 2014 06:47:17 +0000
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