Israeli election update #3 - Hard to keep track here. Earlier a Likud court (what is that again?) ruled that the race for Likud leader and the primary could not be held on the same day (which would lower turnout and favor competitors to Bibi). Bibi apparently appealed to a larger Likud court (how many courts does Likud have?) and got that overturned. The two races will now be held at the same time. As a result of this, Moshe Feiglin, perennial candidate for Likud leadership, has dropped out of the race for leadership and is focusing on his primary race. Seems unusual. Did he make a deal with Bibi? or perhaps with Danny Danon, who is now Bibi’s only competitor in the leadership race? The question of whether the PM can reserve two spots on the list has also been appealed, but has not yet been decided. - A poll has shown that a list that combines Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu party with Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party would get 24 seats in the election, beating both Likud (21) and Labor (20). That would certainly be a game changer. The question not addressed in the poll is who would lead such a list. Former Communications Minister Kahlon, or former Finance Minister Lapid? I’m not sure they could work that out very easily. Then there is the matter of what a coalition would look like – would they join with Likud or Labor? Certainly one of them would be required to form a coalition, unless they put together lots of small parties, which would be unstable at best. Perhaps the ideal situation would be to bring in both Likud and Labor and be done with it, but that is hard to imagine. It has also been rumored that Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party was discussing a joint list with Yesh Atid, but that seems unlikely. More likely, Kahlon, Lapid and Lieberman will run separately, but figure out a way to coordinate their efforts after the election (who to suggest as PM, which ministries each wants, etc.) in the same way that Lapid and Bennett did successfully after the last election. - Prof. Manuel Trajtenberg, whom Netanyahu appointed to head a committee to negotiate with Israeli social protesters in 2011, has resigned from his position as chair of the Planning and Budgeting Committee of the Council for Higher Education in Israel, so he can run in the elections. After talking with both Labor/Hatnua and Kulanu, he has chosen to run in the Labor/Hatnua list, where he was given a reserved spot (more or less insuring he will make it into the Knesset). Rumor has it that he insisted on becoming Finance Minister in a new government. - Zouheir Bahloul, a well-known Arab soccer commentator, has announced he will run in the Labor party’s primaries. He is expected to vie for spot 17, reserved for Arab and Druze candidates. - Jewish Home’s first campaign video (https://youtube/watch?v=PBN0nqQX5xo) was released, featuring Naftali Bennett as a bearded hipster Telavivian who apologizes whenever someone does something wrong to him. He then pulls off his beard revealing himself as Bennett and saying the time for apologizes is over. Tel Aviv only sent 4% of their votes to Bennett in the last election, so I guess he’s not worried about alienating too many voters by making fun of Telavivian hipsters. Meretz leader Zehava Gal-on followed this with her own video (https://youtube/watch?v=tE2SNBgFm5I) where Gal-on dresses up as a settler woman, then text comes on the screen saying ‘Did you really think so?’ as if viewers assume she would be making fun of settlers, and then text that says Meretz doesn’t mock their brothers and sisters, Meretz is for everyone. Apparently boycotting is okay, but mocking is not (Gal-on has stated her support for boycotting settlement-produced products). - Former MK Michael Ben-Ari, who was originally a member of the now-banned Kach party, then a member of various other nationalist parties, was eventually elected to the Knesset as part of the National Union in 2009. In 2012 Ben-Ari formed another new party with Aryeh Eldad called Otzma LeYisrael (Strength to Israel), which did not pass the electoral threshold. Last week he formed yet another party for this election, called Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Strength). That party set up a new office which was promptly raided by the police as part of their crackdown on the group Lehava, which was found to be responsible for the recent attack on a joint Jewish-Arab school in Jerusalem. Ben-Ari does not deny his admiration for Lehava, but it seems strange to think he would link a political party with an organization carrying out illegal activities (how dumb would you have to be to do that?). - In the last election, former Shas MK Chaim Amsalem created his own party Am Shalem, but did not pass the electoral threshold (he received 45,000 votes). In April of this year he joined the Likud party. He first wanted to join Jewish Home, but decided against it because of their support for reform of the conversion system in Israel. He planned to run in the Likud primaries in the next election. Now Amsalem is saying he is considering running with Likud, Kulanu, or Jewish Home, although he considers Jewish Home to be his ‘natural place’ as that is where most of his supporters want him. He claims polls show him bringing one mandate to whatever party he joins, so he pays for himself so to speak. The question is where he will realistically get a spot (he is unlikely to get a spot in the Likud primary). Interestingly, he did not mention Eli Yishai’s party, probably because Yishai led Shas when Amsalem left. - Speaking of Yishai, his party name is now officially HaAm Itanu (the nation is with us). So much for togetherness (previously it was thought the name would be Yachad/Together). - With Eli Yishai in his own party, both his party and Shas are teetering on the edge of oblivion. With the raised minimum threshold, they need to get 3.25% of votes, and both are just barely reaching that threshold. It is possible that both parties will simply not exist after the election. Hard to imagine no Shas party in government, but it seems possible now. With Ovadia Yosef’s death, Yishai’s split and Kahlon’s popularity (he is Sephardi and he is fighting for much of the same population that Shas is) Shas is not in a very good position. Maybe David Levy is poised for a comeback?
Posted on: Thu, 18 Dec 2014 12:23:02 +0000
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