Issued At 1/31/2014 - DISCUSSION AND FORECAST: Issued on 30 Jan 2014 at 1705 by M. Padovani The Medium and Extended forecast still appears to be an active one, and model guidance is getting more in agreement…though the details are still murky. By Sunday morning, an area of Low pressure will approach the California coast, High pressure will be over much of the central U.S., while a cold front will extend from the eastern Great Lakes down through the TX coast. As Ive previously stated, as this front moves east, precipitation will remain mainly over the higher terrain to our north and west. A stray light shower or sprinkle is possible on Sunday, but predominately the day should be mostly cloudy and dry with mild temperatures - possibly getting near 50°F! High pressure will then move in Sunday night into the predawn hours of Monday and then things get interesting. Colder air will be in place while warmer air moves in aloft - thanks to a wave/disturbance that is likely to form along the southern part of the old cold front. This may cause an icy/snowy combination. Start time is a bit uncertain - could be anytime between late Sunday night and late Monday morning. Best chance for precipitation will be to our immediate south, however. High pressure moves back in Monday night into Tuesday, and then things get interesting once again. The same Low that entered coastal California on Sunday will arrive in the Gulf south on Tuesday and will then move northeast, bringing plenty of moisture into an area of sub-freezing (or near freezing) temperature. Of course plenty of time between now and then to get the specific lower-atmospheric thermal structure for accurate precip-type forecast from late Tuesday into Wednesday…so stay tuned! SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, mild and breezy with a slight chance for light rain showers, high 49°F, wind SW-WSW at 7-12G16 MPH becoming NW at 9-14G24 MPH in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy overnight with a chance for light snow/flurries after midnight, turning colder with a light breeze, low 27°F, wind NW at 7-12 MPH becomes N toward morning. MONDAY: Cloudy with a chance for light snow or a rain/snow mix through early afternoon, skies clear late in the afternoon, high 36°F, wind N-NNW at 5-11 MPH. Mostly clear during the evening then increasing clouds overnight, low 25°F, wind NW at 3-7 MPH becoming N toward morning. TUESDAY: Cloudy with a slight chance for rain/snow in the late afternoon, high 38°F, wind NE-E at 3-7 MPH. Cloudy with rain/snow likely overnight, low 32°F, wind ESE at 8-12 MPH.
Posted on: Fri, 31 Jan 2014 16:51:26 +0000
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