It is a seasonably cool Monday morning with radar showing a few sprinkles or light rain exiting the eastern district. Satellite shows considerable high and mid level clouds upstream over Kansas and Nebraska with a strong northwest flow at the Jet Stream level. Temperatures are in the 50s in most areas. Well have quite a bit of mid and upper level cloud cover today as a wave aloft within the strong jet stream passes through. This wave will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon..mainly for the district from Kansas City to SE MO/SW IL and STL. Over the weekend, Simon, the latest and 19th tropical cyclone off the coast of Mexico in the eastern Pacific became a category four storm (the 6th this season). Simon (shown near at peak intensity) has now weakened and will bring a slug of moisture and renewed heavy rains to the Southwestern U.S. this week..which has been impacted by Norbert and Odile just in the last several months. Simon is important to us because it will bring a chance for moderate to heavy rains to our area by mid to late week..and weve just had an episode of heavy rain last week. Current forecasts..and this is very much subject to change..focus this round of heavy rains along and south of I-70 (MO) and I-64 (IL). It will depend upon the precise track of Simons remnant energy and the interaction with the northern jet stream and a frontal system in the area. Current projections forecast a widespread 2-3 rain over the Ozark Plateau, a solid 2 rain for the STL metro and 1.75 for the area from just east of KC through Columbia and then down to SEMO/SW IL. Rainfall drops off west and north of there with 1-1.25 for the KC Metro..falling sharply to a half inch out by Topeka and well NW of KC. A majority of this rain is expected Wednesday night through Friday morning..although this too could change. Much as is the case with our winter storms...the tight gradient from heavy rain to little rain means any shift in the storm track could really change these amounts for your location. There has been a little bit of a southward trend in the models of late and well see if this continues in the coming days.
Posted on: Mon, 06 Oct 2014 12:56:25 +0000
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