It seems obvious to me that Lavrov didnt call Kerry for a meeting only to discuss federalism again. Other things must have been on the table. Thats why the following from Taras Berezovsky is worth translating in full: From the information given, Russias plan for Ukraine, which it expects the US and EU to approve. [And where was the EU in todays talks anyway?]: 1. A new constitution establishing Ukraines neutrality. Ukraine officially rejects membership in the EU and NATO. 2. Crimea is declared a demilitarized zone. All military forces are removed including the Black Sea Fleet and all Ukrainian military. 3. After all military are removed, a new, independent referendum is conducted on the status of Crimea. According to the results, conduct joint Ukrainian-Russian administration of the peninsula. 4. Ukraine becomes a federation. Russian is a second state language. 5. No presidential elections until December. If this is true, or even close, it makes a lot of sense. The demilitarized Crimea is a new one. As is the offer to hold a new referendum and joint administration based on its results, which the Russians presume will be heavily in their favor. Joint administration is an admission that Crimea makes no sense without the mainland. The longer theres no deal with Kyiv, the greater will be Crimeans discontent -- they didnt get extra pensions, food is running out, there arent enough passports and the reality of what becoming a part of Russia really means is sinking in. Russia needs to normalize the peninsula with mainland supplies. If it cant win by war, which is seeming increasingly less likely, it has to deal with Kyiv. Tourist season is looming after which Crimean taxi drivers will be burning tires.
Posted on: Mon, 31 Mar 2014 02:47:00 +0000
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