It would seem that the Opposition camp is as solid as ever and numbers are still firm. This leads us to try and work out what the Prime Minister and his governments options are should the numbers remain in favour of the Opposition until Thursday for the Motion to be debated. 1. The most logical scenario would be that the Prime Minister voluntarily resign. 2. The second scenario would be that the PM be actually voted out on the floor of Parliament. 3. The Government gets the President to dissolve Parliament and the country goes through another general election. 4. The PM does not resign and the Motion gets challenged in a court of law as being illegal just to draw some time. 5. The Opposition by some miraculous change of heart withdraws the motion. 6. Trouble arises and the Government petitions the President to declare a state of emergency thereby maintaining the country under a state of emergency with the current government in place. Hypothetical assessment: 1. Most unlikely given the character of the current Prime Minister and the govt/commercial deals that have been brokered and negotiated. Also with the people behind him who will take it to the last minute. 2. Will most likely happen if the Parliament actually sits to debate the motion. 3. Could be tried but President would have to be convinced that there were sufficient grounds for dissolution and could be possible as the President was politically VP. 4. Very possible as the PM has sufficient financial backing and lawyers to which he owes favours who will not want him out yet for them to get their just reward and pound of flesh for supporting him to be PM. 5. Unlikely that the Opposition will withdraw the Motion now that they are confident of the numbers. 6. Very possible that some of the PMs cronies could put together a plan to start trouble to generate sufficient excuse for a State of Emergency to be declared. The PM also has some old ex-military people around him as well as a lot of troublesome supporters and his coalition partners have a lot of supporters in the Police and VMF. These are just some hypothetical scenarios and on Thursday, we will be in a position to see if the Government has been able to retain its majority or the country is due for a change of government. we are confident that the Prime Minister being a natora, senior politician and leader in the Republic of Vanuatu will make the right and honourable choice that will ensure a logical and peaceful transition if circumstances dictate.
Posted on: Mon, 24 Feb 2014 05:06:19 +0000
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