Its December! Fate of 5 States & that of Sonia & Modi in a Week, as Bookies divided over poll results. For Delhi, bookies are giving BJP Rs 1.30 and Congress Rs 1.40 for every rupee. Bookies in Delhi see the Bharatiya Janata Party as the favourite to win the Assembly elections in the states of MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi. They say that while the BJP will win Rajasthan, MP & Delhi comfortably, it has a tough fight in hand in Chhattisgarh. They are giving the BJP the lowest rate of Rs 1.30 to a rupee & Congress Rs 1.40 to a rupee to win Delhi. So betting Re 1 on BJP will get Rs 1.30, in case the party emerges victorious in the national capital. For the Congress, the returns will be slightly higher at Rs 1.40. However, bookies in Mumbai see both Delhi and Chhattisgarh as tough fights for BJP. They are offering Rs 3 for Congress and Rs 3.50 for a BJP win in Delhi. In other words, if someone bets Re 1 on Congress he will get Rs 3 if the party comes to power, and Rs 3.50 if the BJP comes to power. A bookie from Delhis Seelampur area said on the condition of anonymity, We are giving Rs 1.30 to the BJP and Rs 1.40 to the Congress. For the Aam Aadmi Party the odds are much higher. In fact, we prefer betting on the basis of candidates and not on the party as a whole. According to him, they were betting on the BJP being comfortably ahead in the Delhi Assembly elections with 35-36 seats, the Congress with 20-22 seats, and Arvind Kejriwals Aam Aadmi Party trailing way behind with a maximum of five seats. Large scale betting is taking place on the New Delhi Assembly seat, from where Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit is locked in a battle with AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal and BJPs Vijender Gupta. For Sheila Dikshit, the rates are Rs 1.10 for every rupee; for the BJP candidate we are giving Rs 1.20, he said. Bookies see Kejriwal as finishing third, so are giving him Rs 1.70 for Re 1. BJPs CM candidate, Dr Harshvardhan, who is contesting from the Krishna Nagar seat, is considered a safe bet. Delhi bookies say that the BJP will sail through Rajasthan comfortably with 110-odd seats out of 200. Sometime back, the sentiment was that Rajasthan would be a close contest between the Congress and the BJP. They feel that BJP will also come back to power in Madhya Pradesh. However, another Delhi-based bookie said, As per our observation, BJP will come to power easily in Delhi and Madhya Pradesh, whereas it will be a 50:50 in Rajasthan for Congress and BJP. BJP will win in Chhattisgarh, but with a small margin. Congress is expected to increase its seats there. Delhi bookies say the BJP is the favourite to win the national capital. The bookies in Mumbai believe that the BJP will definitely form governments in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh. They believe that BJP & Congress have equal opportunities in Delhi. Few top bookies said that total investment on the five state elections would be around Rs 5,000 crore after the last phase of voting on 4 December. The amount is less than what they bet on cricketer Tendulkars score in his last test match in Mumbai on 16 Nov. Mumbai bookies feel that BJP has improved its position in Delhi with the elevation of Harshvardhan as CM candidate and as AAP has lost a major chunk of its voters after a sting against it. Vijay Goel certainly is more popular but Harshvardhans clean image is helping BJP. We were not sure if Harshvardhan could win his Assembly seat but since his nomination as CM candidate we are seeing a shift in public opinion, bookie from Malad. He, however, said that a lukewarm response to Congress Rahul Gandhis rallies in Delhi would not adversely affect partys fortunes. Congress and BJP have equal chances of winning Delhi. These elections are not a contest between Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi. We will bet on them in the Lok Sabha elections. Another bookie from Dombivli said that Shivraj Singh Chouhan will manage to retain power in Madhya Pradesh for the third time. He is offering Rs 2 for the BJP and Rs 4 for the Congress for this state. Chouhan is a lambi race ka ghoda (Chouhan can be a big player in future). He is not a celebrated politician but he knows the pulse of the rural voters. That is why we are confident of his win, A bookie from Dongri said that Vasundhara Rajes clout will help BJP to win the Rajasthan Assembly. He is offering Rs 3.40 for BJP and Rs 4.80 for Congress in this state. Ashok Gehlots charisma is diminishing. Vasundhara Raje is not a leader connected with the grassroots. However, people will prefer the BJP because they dont want Gehlot, the bookie said. As for Chhattisgarh, Mumbai bookies earlier believed that election would be a cakewalk for Chhattisgarh CM Raman Singh. However, they have adopted a cautious approach after the state recorded a high voting percentage. Raman Singh will retain power, but not with a thumping majority, the bookie from Malad said. He is offering Rs 3 for the BJP and Rs 4 for the Congress in this state. Mumbai bookies are not accepting bets on the Mizoram Assembly election because they believe that the state will not witness any major shifts. Anyway the media is not showing much interest in Mizoram. So the punters (those who invest money) are less aware of the political situation there, the bookie from Dombivli said. In betting, the lower the odds, higher the partys chances of coming to power. Satta rates will continue to be modified until a day before the counting of votes on 8 December 2013.
Posted on: Sun, 01 Dec 2013 05:27:40 +0000
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