Its the Sun, Stupid The Sun is the climate pacemaker I. Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures (2014) It is asserted that the associated climate system is driven by a forcing of solar origin that has two manifestations: (1) A direct phase-locked response to what is identified as a solar forcing at a frequency of 1.0 cycle/yr for the whole time series; (2) A phase-locked response at either the second or third subharmonic of the putative solar forcing between 1991 and 1999; 2001–02 and 2008; and again between 2008 and 2013.... It is pointed out that the 12-month moving average filter is demonstrably superior to the climatology method of removing seasonal effects in data. This is seen to be the case for interpretation of El Niño/La Niña data, which contains spurious annual effects when treated under the climatology scheme. An extension of these results to global data will be presented in a second Letter [16]. It will be shown that patterns of subharmonics identical to those described here occur throughout the oceans pas.rochester.edu/~douglass/papers/PLA_Sun_I_in_press.pdf The Sun is the climate pacemaker II. Global ocean temperatures (2014) In part I, equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature index SST3.4 was found to have segments during 1990–2014 showing a phase-locked annual signal and phase-locked signals of 2- or 3-year periods. Phase locking is to an inferred solar forcing of 1.0 cycle/yr. Here the study extends to the global ocean, from surface to 700 and 2000 m. The same phase-locking phenomena are found. The El Niño/La Niña effect diffuses into the world oceans with a delay of about two months.... It is asserted that these systems are driven by a forcing unquestionably of solar origin that has two manifestations: (1) a direct phase-locked response to what is identified as a solar forcing at a frequency of 1.0 cycle/yr for the whole time series; (2) a second phase-locked response at a period of two years or three years. With these findings it is becoming clear that the entire climate system is responding to the varying incident solar radiation, and is subject to interactions, most likely nonlinear, that produce the subharmonics of two or three year period, and is moreover evolving non-continuously, as evidenced by breaks in the pattern whose timing can be identified with known climate shifts. The most prominent manifestations of the pattern are found in the El Niño/La Niña phenomena. As emphasized in [2], the “natural” periodicity of El Niño/La Niña is two or three years, and observations of longer intervals should be considered probable evidence for an intervening climate shift. pas.rochester.edu/~douglass/papers/PLA_Sun_II_in_press.pdf Hat tip to WattsUpWithThat...
Posted on: Fri, 09 Jan 2015 18:42:49 +0000
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