I’ve been strong in going against the crowd on Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten. I predicted Witten would regress in 2013—coming off a season in which he broke the record for most catches by a tight end (110)—and labeled him as one of the Cowboys’ most overrated players. Some argued that a future Hall of Fame tight end can’t be overrated, but that idea disregards two things: one, that Witten isn’t playing at a Hall of Fame level anymore, and two, that the idea of being overrated necessitates a comparison of talent to public perception. I never said Witten is no longer a quality tight end—just that the perception of him (elite) doesn’t match reality. If we were looking solely at bulk stats, we’d need to label Witten as an elite player. Even in a down year in 2013, Witten racked up 851 yards and eight touchdowns on 73 catches. There aren’t many tight ends around the league who are doing that. What we need to concern ourselves with when assessing Witten’s value, however, is the opportunity cost of his targets. That is, when Witten receives a target from quarterback Tony Romo, the real value is what he does with it minus what a replacement receiver could have done—i.e. what opportunities do the Cowboys lose by targeting Witten so often? In his heyday, Witten was arguably the Cowboys’ top target, and thus it wasnt possible to go to him too often. That’s no longer the case, and we know that because Witten doesn’t produce elite efficiency with the looks he receives.
Posted on: Sun, 06 Jul 2014 23:08:52 +0000
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