JEFFERSON COUNTY MT. VERNON FORECAST ... PLUS STORM WARNING ... PLUS HAZARDOUS WEATHER STATEMENT ... PLUS THE DIRECT STORM ANALYSIS FROM THE PADUCAH WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE ... PLUS SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT jcs Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 5am. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before noon. Sunny, with a high near 89. West northwest wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Sunday Night Clear, with a low around 62. West northwest wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Monday Sunny, with a high near 79. North northwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 57. North wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light after midnight. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 59. Light north wind. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. North wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Southeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. East northeast wind around 6 mph. Friday A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Friday Night A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Saturday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Northeast wind around 6 mph. WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 443 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 728 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 ILC047-065-081-185-191-193-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-270600- /O.CON.KPAH.SV.A.0443.000000T0000Z-140727T0600Z/ SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EDWARDS HAMILTON JEFFERSON WABASH WAYNE WHITE IN INDIANA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA GIBSON PIKE POSEY SPENCER VANDERBURGH WARRICK THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALBION...BOONVILLE...CARMI... EVANSVILLE...FAIRFIELD...FORT BRANCH...MCLEANSBORO... MOUNT CARMEL...MOUNT VERNON...PETERSBURG... POSEYVILLE AND ROCKPORT. $$ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNTIL 1 AM. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS INTERSTATE 64 THIS EVENING...PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...MOSTLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON..MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST NEXT FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN REQUESTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA ON SUNDAY. $$ SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 722 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 ILZ083-INZ081-082-085-270100- GIBSON IN-PIKE IN-POSEY IN-WHITE IL- 722 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHITE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND GIBSON...NORTHERN PIKE AND NORTHERN POSEY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA UNTIL 800 PM CDT... AT 720 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST. FRANCISVILLE TO ENFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... CARMI...PRINCETON...PETERSBURG...FORT BRANCH...OAKLAND CITY... NORRIS CITY...GRAYVILLE...PATOKA...CROSSVILLE...OWENSVILLE...NEW HARMONY...POSEYVILLE...CYNTHIANA...GRIFFIN...PHILLIPSTOWN AND FRANCISCO. LAT...LON 3851 8707 3844 8708 3791 8837 3819 8837 3822 8833 3826 8823 3826 8799 3824 8796 3829 8794 3830 8791 3827 8791 3831 8787 3827 8785 3842 8774 3846 8760 3852 8754 3851 8749 3855 8735 3852 8729 3855 8719 TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 289DEG 30KT 3852 8748 3817 8832 ---------AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED------------------ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 628 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 628 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 All evidence points to the cap (see ILX and DVN 18Z RAOBS) holding strong across the area late this afternoon and tonight. The lone exception may be along the I-64 corridor, where a complex of thunderstorms may push rapidly eastward generally in the 01Z-05Z timeframe this evening. The HRRR is still unable to generate a larger-scale bowing system, as seen on some of the shorter range models this morning. The 12Z NAM and GFS soundings show some weakness at times in the mid-level flow across our north, so the overall organization of any storms that develop may not be as significant as previously thought. Individual storm cells may have enough 0-3KM SRH to support rotating updrafts and would not be surprised to see some supercells initially, where storms can develop this evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible, and a few tornadoes can not be ruled out with any individual cells this evening. However, figure the cap will suppress any activity that tries to dip south of I-64, or possibly even into our northern- most counties. The mid-upper 70 dewpoints have descended upon the region as expected, and heat indices have reached triple digits over much of the area. Already issued a Special Weather Statement for the heat. It should subside by 7 PM, and would be surprised to see values above 105, so will not be issuing a Heat Advisory at this time. Overnight, the models struggle to generate much, if any, convection over our region, so will keep PoPs at 30% or less. The cold front will move through the region Sunday, and the low to mid 70 dewpoints and temperatures well into the 90s are expected ahead of it over the southeast 2/3 of the area in the afternoon. This could lead to heat indices near today`s levels, and a righteous airmass for strong to severe thunderstorms to feed on. Winds ahead of the front will be nearly due west, and quite strong, pushing Lake Wind Advisory levels, especially east of the Mississippi River. The veered winds result in only weak convergence along the boundary, so thunderstorm coverage is expected to be widely scattered to scattered, with better coverage later in the day along the Tennessee border. Certainly cannot rule out a few severe storms mainly over west Kentucky and southwest Indiana. The consensus of guidance is that most if not all of the convective activity will shift south of the area by early Sunday evening. Will have a dry forecast for the entire area overnight Sunday through Monday Night. A deep trough over the Great Lakes and northeast will keep the area in strong northwest flow aloft through the period. North winds will bring much cooler and drier air into the region through the period, as well. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 255 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 Above medium confidence in the extended. High pressure aloft will be firmly in place over west with a persistent upper level trough over the east. This will place in a much drier northerly flow in the fronts wake. This will also result in unseasonable low RH reading for most of the upcoming week. By the end of the week the upper level trough deepens and even suggest a cut off upper low forming the lower Tennessee Valley Friday into the weekend. This will allow for at least daytime storm chances mainly in the afternoon with max heating...but could not rule out some activity into the evening hours. Temperatures will much cooler than normal through the extended with lower to middle 80s for the region. && .AVIATION... Issued at 628 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014 Could see TSRA with MVFR cigs/vsbys at KEVV/KOWB between 02-05Z with the passing of the Mesoscale Convective Complex. Would normally expect TSRA with a FROPA on Sunday but models showing a decent capping inversion so did not mention anything at this time. South southwest winds AOB 10 knots overnight will pick up out of the west at 12-14 knots gusting to 20-22 knots after 15Z, then veer around to the northwest by the end of the period in the wake of the FROPA. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. &&
Posted on: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 00:39:04 +0000
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