JTWC FORECAST IN TROPICAL STORM #MEKKHALA The forecast is down directly in Eastern Visayas wdpn31 pgtw 152100 msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi// subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical storm 01w (mekkhala) warning nr 10// rmks// 1. For meteorologists. 2. 6 hour summary and analysis. Tropical Storm (TS) 01w (mekkhala), located approximately 662 nm east-southeast of Manila, Philippines, has tracked westward at 08 knots over the past six hours. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) continues to depict low-level spiral banding wrapping into a partially exposed low-level circulation center (LLCC) with asymmetric deep convection displaced to the west of the LLCC. A 151821z SSMI 85ghz image reveals weakened convective banding wrapping into the western quadrant of the LLCC. Upper level analysis indicates continued southeasterly vertical wind shear (15-20 knots) with weakened poleward outflow as evident in water vapor imagery. The current position is based on the eir animation and SSMI microwave image with good confidence. The initial intensity remains at 35 knots based on t2.5 from all agencies. Ts mekkhala is currently tracking westward along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level sub-tropical ridge (str). 3. Forecast reasoning. A. No change to the forecast philosophy since the previous prognostic reasoning message. B. Ts 01w will continue to track west to west-northwestward under an extension of the str located to the northeast until making landfall in central Philippines near tau 36. Ts 01w is forecast to slowly intensify prior to making landfall due to favorable SSTs, however, unfavorable upper level conditions will inhibit further intensification. Model guidance has come into better agreement through this portion of the forecast but continues to show a bifurcation near tau 48, with GFDN and COAMPS-tc taking a weaker system across the southern Philippines. C. After tau 72, ts mekkhala will rapidly weaken due to land interaction and increased vws. This will cause the system to turn to the west-southwest under the influence of the northeasterly surge. In the extanded Taus, GFS and Jens recurve the system to the northeast. However, after conducting a model analysis, they are erroneously jumping vorticity maximums to an area within the mid- latitude westerlies. The official jtwc forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus, however, due to the bifurcation mentioned above, there is low confidence in thE forecast Source: wunderground/hurricane/western-pacific/2015/tropical-storm-Mekkhala?text=disc
Posted on: Fri, 16 Jan 2015 02:13:39 +0000
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