JTWC update This is moved quickly. Now 1,000 km east of the - TopicsExpress

JTWC update This is moved quickly. Now 1,000 km east of the PAR THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 151.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE LLCC IS SITUATED EQUATORWARD OF AN EXTENSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS AIDING SPINUP OF THE LLCC, AND NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON SUPPORTIVE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MODEL FORECASTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM

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