Jeff, Ive been listening with interest to your comments on the possible scenarios involving MH370 - and I heard you discussing the hypothesis of a cockpit fire or similar issue triggering the sequence of events on CNN. As you pointed out, that kind of scenario is difficult to reconcile both with the fact the aircraft continued flying for a long time after that, and it continued to make other course changes. I wonder whether some scenario involving a pressurization problem along the lines of what happened on Helios 522 could provide a much closer fit with the known facts (although there are still some difficulties). Specifically, I wonder if there could have been some pressurization problem which developed slowly enough, perhaps combined with some other evolving mechanical issue, that a slow enough onset of hypoxia resulted in the pilots starting to behave in an unusual manner. It seems to me hypoxia is worth thinking about exactly because it could cause the pilots to lose the ability to think and act rationally, and result in a pattern of actions that to the outside seem difficult to understand or reconcile. Im imagining a scenario where perhaps even prior to the last radio contact with ATC the pilots were already experiencing the effect of decreasing oxygen level in the cabin. Lets say that the altered course had been programmed into the FMS on the ground as part of some normal flight contingency planning. You could imagine a scenario which could fit a number of the other events we know about: - possibly consistent with the unusual actions of the flight crew if hypoxia was impairing either their situational awareness, their ability to successfully carry out certain actions, or both (no indication of a problem to Malaysian ATC, turning off of the transponder, deciding to alter the flight path, perhaps even reconfiguring ACARS) - if something, whatever it was, caused them to initiate the turn to the west, and the pilots subsequently lost consciousness due to hypoxia, consistent with the fact the aircraft flew for hours after the aircraft deviated from the original flight plan, assuming it was still on autopilot. This is what happened on Helios. - it could also be consistent with the fact that the plane later made other course changes and ended up on either that northern or southern arc if, as happened in the Helios case, a cabin crew member with access to supplemental oxygen was able to gain access to the flight deck at a later point in the flight. This also occurred on Helios. You could well imagine such a person, if they didnt have sufficient knowledge of the aircraft systems, attempting to navigate or turn the aircraft onto some other heading, but simply being in the end unable to do so successfully. The aircraft could easily end up anywhere. The main problem I see with this scenario is how to account for ACARS - both why it apparently stopped sending data after the last contact with Malaysia ATC, and whether there is a possible sequence of eventsin which such a pressurization problem could develop without ACARS reporting it prior to it ceasing to transmit data.
Posted on: Wed, 19 Mar 2014 20:36:38 +0000
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