JoRos NFL Picks Mentioned this last week but a quick note- DVOA or DYAR are stats created by Footballoutsiders, something I tend to trust more than raw yardage, though Ill use that when applicable. IND will W over HOU- Look at this to be the first close TNF game of the year. The #Colts have Andrew Luck, #Texans have Arian Foster, J.J Watt and company, and playing at home. Indy doesnt really have the running game to punish the Texans biggest hole, a run D that is soft (25th in DVOA) JAX will W over TEN- A tossup, both these teams are near the very bottom of the #NFL pecking order. Picking the #Jaguars because they hardly look 0-16 Detroit level bad, and because Id pick Bortles over Whitehurst any day of the week, and twice on Sunday. Hopefully the #Titans dont follow suit, as the rookie seems prone to some pretty bewildering interceptions. BAL will W over TB- #buccaneers are another one of those bottom feeders, and the only team 25th or worse in O, D and ST according to DVOA. The #Ravens actually look to be a more talented version of the good Kubiak years, and currently sit at 4th in the FOs rankings. Doubt hes available, but if Forsett is still in your free agency hed be a heck of a fantasy pickup, even though Tampa actually ranks a very respectable 10th in rushing D. DEN will W over the NYJ- Ive mentioned it twice already this week, but the #Jets Geno was benched in San Diego for Ron Mexico, and looks to be regressing from his horrid rookie season. Ryan is coaching for his job, but that O is stinkier than gym socks (29th) despite Chris Ivory performing admirably. #Broncos one of the two truly elite teams through the early goings, even without Ball I cant see Manning dropping this one. CAR will L to CIN- First home team I picked, but despite their record (3-2) I still stand that the #Panthers are one of footballs true pretenders so far. The offense is Olsen, Benjamin and Newton throwing blocks (whomped Lance Briggs last week.... thats gotta be good for his ribs). Defense isnt as good as all the Bear turnovers made them look last week. The #Bengals are still one of the AFCs real contenders, even if Dalton got punked by Belicheat last Sunday. Cinci still 4th most likely team to make a conference championship, and the Jailcats still hold an 8% chance at a Super Bowl win, red rifle shooting blanks and all. PIT will W over CLE- Its strange how unsure of this one I am, but the #Browns Hoyer is currently playing like a top 12 QB. Amazing considering best wideout is currently Miles Austin. Even if he slips the best NFL MSU QB award goes to him. Going with history here as the Rapelessberger era #Steelers have simply manhandled the poor dawgs. SD will W over OAK- Chokeland wont figure it out this week, as the black hole will continue to leave Carr stuck in neutral, leaving him to be overwhelmed by the #Chargers Rivers. DAL will L to SEA- Scott Kacsmar tweeted earlier this week that Lynch will outrush Murray in this game, and I agree. Not only is Murray on pace for 416 carries (would tie Larry Johnsons record) but the #Seahawks have the best run defense in football, their latest victim being Washingtons Morris (2.2 ypc) #Cowboys run d? Last in the league. Just ask Arian Foster, or any of his fantasy owners. WSH will W over ARI- another game Im struggling to get a bead on. Wednesday is the crucial day according to Arians in determining if Palmer will play, something the 24th ranked #Cardinals O could really use after seeing rookie Logan Thomas hit the field last week against Denver. Keep context in mind before expecting Strange Cousins to have a great game though, Manning averages 2.89 TDs a game since moving to Colorado, but this Arizona secondary is legit. (4th against the pass) Why am I picking the Washington professional football team then? Combination of a rusty Palmer (or Thomas) and the Morris/Helu combo getting some traction against an average run game minus Calias Campbell. NYG will W over PHI- Unlike some I have no problem admitting a mistake, and the numbers are currently providing a loud message that I was way off in picking the Giants to finish near the bottom of the NFC. Currently ranked 8th by FO I expect that pass rush to eat up Foles Golds offense (22nd by FO). Barring another special teams miracle I cant see this Iggles team being a real contender unless they can patch up the OL in a hurry, last week it seemed like Shady and Foles had pressure in their face during play fakes, an ominous sign. SF will W over STL- But it will be closer than the picture the numbers paint. #49ers currently have a top 10 D (again, Patrick Willis effect) and the #Rams surprisingly are near the bottom of the league despite that amazing DL. I expect Kraepernick to struggle with the pass rush and give a couple gifts, as hes prone to do. Fisher will make sure Austin Davis and that offense come ready to play, even if Stacy is ailing. ______________________Game of the Week_____________ NE will W over BUF- Surprising, but as of right now the #Bills have a 50.1% chance at the postseason. Gun to my head Id pick the two AFC wildcard teams to be either Baltimore/Cinci and San Diego/Denver, so silver medal in the AFC East doesnt look good enough. Kyle Orton will have some issues with a secondary that currently has the #Patriots at 5th in the league (Revis helps). Wingz City fans need not be too discouraged though as Belicheat hasnt been able to patch a porous run d so far, even with Wilfork back. +++++++++++++++++++NFC NORTH++++++++++++++++ Big disappointment last week as da #Bears and Lions gave winnable games away. Chicagos playoff odds took the biggest hit as they already sit one behind Green Bay and, with a much tougher slate about to open up they may look back at the Carolina game at the end of the year as the turning point of their year. DET will W over MIN- Bridgewater will make a difference if he is anywhere near healthy, and Megatron looks like a scratch for the #Lions, but Motowns D is too legit to quit. Look for Suh and company to turn this one by shutting down the run and forcing Steady Teddys #Vikings to play catchup all day, so long as Stafford can channel playoff Joe Fluke-O and not last years Caldwell led Ravens team (they currently sit at 20th on FO, an embarrasment with that much talent) GB will W over MIA- I do expect this to be closer than the numbers suggest, as GB is currently 17 spots ahead of Miami on FO. Rodgers will have a tougher game than last Thursday as he faces off against a talented #Dolphin line. Will likely be one of those games where ARod spends half the game on the turf, but the other half scoring TDs. Fun fact- Both the #Packers WRs are in the top 3 of FOs rankings. Something to keep in mind the next time a misinformed announcer mentions how Cobb has been forgotten. CHI will L to ATL- Atlanta continues to boast a top 3 offense, and despite that dreadful D (28th) I expect Matt Ryans #Falcons to make less mistakes this Sunday. Cutler continues to look like a Favre reincarnate, with multiple TDs in every game so far, but also a fumble or pick(s) in every one. Hes just having fun out there folks. Media is already starting to ponder if Marc Trestman is the next in line to be Cutlered. Alright enough puns, eh?
Posted on: Wed, 08 Oct 2014 16:05:26 +0000
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