Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 03/0947Z from Region 2253 (S07E09). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 548 km/s at 03/0706Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/0000Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 02/2355Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Jan), unsettled to active levels on day two (05 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Jan). III. Event probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Jan 149 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 155/155/150 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 156 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 015/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 011/015-012/015-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan-06 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/20 Minor Storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 40/40/25
Posted on: Sat, 03 Jan 2015 23:16:08 +0000
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