July 25, 2014: I wrote a short novel last night in my update :) See that update for more detailed information. Bottom line for today through Sunday... A storms could make it into portions of southern IL later this morning/afternoon. This activity will be moving out of eastern MO and central IL. Storms will move south/southeast. Believe most of them will skirt far southern IL and west KY. Thus, not much concern for areas south of Route 13. Northern and northwest Kentucky may experience some of todays activity. That would be more towards Evansville/Owensboro area. Low confidence on how much of the line coming out of northeast Missouri holds together. Overall, the band of storms should be weakening as it pushes closer to our region. Uncertainty in the forecast... Keep in mind that occasionally these thunderstorm complexes dont go as planned. Any shift in movement/track will need to be monitored. Another round of storms is possible later tonight. Best chances once again will be up towards northeast Missouri, central Illinois, St Louis area, I64, Mt Vernon, and into southern Indiana. Once again, it appears that far southern Illinois (south of Route 13) and western Kentucky will miss out on tonights activity. Areas north and northeast of Route 13 may experience some of the storms late tonight into Saturday morning - keep that in mind. Also northwest Kentucky. I consider northwest Kentucky the counties that border southwest Indiana. The main cold front arrives Saturday night and Sunday. This is when far southern IL (south of Route 13) and western Kentucky will need to monitor for possible thunderstorms. At least the best chances for thunderstorms. I posted a map yesterday evening showing where my biggest concerns were. I cant find much data that changes my mind today (including updated Storm Prediction Center outlooks for Saturday and Sunday). Some places will once again miss out on this precipitation event. Are you used to hearing that by now? Some people will make out like bandits. That means they could pick up several inches of rain. This will most likely occur somewhere along a line from Mt Vernon, Illinois and then southeast towards McLeansboro, Illinois into southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Thunderstorms chances will taper the further south and west you travel in our region. That does NOT mean that areas south and west of Route 13 wont experience thunderstorms. Same for western Kentucky. This is a strong cold front. Thunderstorms could very well trail all the way back into southeast Missouri. There remains uncertainty on this subject. If you have concerns then monitor updates. The atmosphere will be juiced up Saturday into Sunday. Thunderstorms that form could produce heavy downpours, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and even hail. Isolated tornadoes cant be ruled out over southern Indiana into portions of Kentucky. Uncertainties about Sunday... How far south and west the activity ends up developing. It is possible some of our counties will miss out entirely. MUCH cooler next week. Perhaps some of the coolest air of the summer. If you have outdoor plans this weekend then stop by and check to see if I have some updates. Will post some links below. I will also re-post the area I think stands the best chances for precipitation/strong storms.
Posted on: Fri, 25 Jul 2014 14:56:24 +0000
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