June 4, 2013 SHORT-TERM ENERGY OPTIONS FOR PAKISTAN By: Izhar Hunzai and Sher Khan Background Over the last 15 years, Pakistan has lacked a realistic energy outlook, and slid into an unfavourable energy mix status, reducing the share of low cost hydropower to less than 10%. The energy policy has become highly politicized, resulting in failure to implement key shovel-ready hydropower projects. The political economy of Pakistan has opted for rental projects, lost opportunity to tap into vast hydropower and solar resources, wasted its natural gas reserves for short-term gains, and eventually led to massive energy blackouts in both urban rural areas, and decimation or shifting of industry to countries like Bangladesh and Malaysia. Various studies conducted by WAPDA and international experts estimate Pakistan’s hydropower potential, alone, to be in excess of 50,000 MW. However, many of these projects will take years if not decades to develop. Given the severity of the current energy crisis, the incoming government needs to tackle this issue on a war footing. Following are some suggestions for the short term (6 months to 1 year) Coal-fired Plants Pakistan has plenty of coal and the technology for coal-fired plants is well developed, low cost and widely available. According to studies by the European Commission, MIT and others coal power plants provide electricity at a lower cost than nuclear or gas plants. This is also confirmed by levelised generation cost studies, such as the one carried out regularly by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which takes account of all the costs over the power plant lifetime. According to IEA statistics, coal-based electricity is, on average, 7% cheaper than gas and around 19% cheaper than nuclear. The advantage of coal is even greater in comparison to renewable energy. IEA and European Commission studies show that onshore wind costs between US$50 and US$156 per MWh and solar PV between US$226 to US$2031. In certain locations hydro resources can produce electricity at a cost comparable to coal, however estimates vary greatly according to geographic conditions and the final price can be as high as US$240 and US$262 per MWh. In comparison, electricity from coal costs between US$56 and US$ 82 per MWh. The only downside is carbon emissions. However, Pakistan remains at the bottom of CO2 emissions, therefore, this can be an ideal option in the short to medium term. Sunshine Pakistan Pakistan lies in an area of one of the highest solar insulation in the world and has immense solar resources, suitable for both Photovoltaic (PV) and Thermal i.e. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) applications. There are certain regions of south, Quetta valley and Central Punjab that receive maximum solar radiation. The Annual Direct Normal Solar Radiation for CSP in the country is in the range of 4.5-5 KWh/m2/day to 7-7.5 KWh/m2/day. Under the right policy conditions, private business can manufacture, source, install, maintain and repair state of the art and internationally certified solar photovoltaic power systems for homes and businesses, thermal solar systems, such as water geysers and heating systems, solar water pumps, street lights, and other integrated systems. Installing PV panels on power grid pylons alone can directly feed more than 5,000 MW of electricity to the National Grid, without the need for expensive invertors and batteries. Moreover, like many countries in Europe, including Germany and UK, solar power can be generated on rooftops of building and the excess energy can be fed into the grid. Decentralized Power Generation Under the current IPP structure, only large-scale generation is permissible. This policy can be changed, allowing municipal bodies, industrial units and energy cooperatives to generate as low as 100 kV of electricity from a variety of sources, short of nuclear, and sell the surplus energy to the grid at a predetermined price.
Posted on: Sat, 27 Jul 2013 15:25:14 +0000
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