KEIRAN OCONNOR: Hi, my question is to the eminent Brian Cox. If 97% of engineers said a bridge was going to fall down and 3% said it was going to stay up, it would be a little absurd to listen to that 3%. Then why is is that 97% of scientists believe that climate change is occurring, yet few in the community and even less in the Government choose to accept this fact? Is this a problem with communication by scientists or a problem with ignorant non-scientists advocating distorted facts? BRIAN COX: I think there is a misunderstanding as to what scientific statements are. So there is a very simple question, of course, with climate change. If you consider putting this amount of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, Co2 and other gas, then does the climate react and, if so, how does it react? That’s obviously a sensible question to ask. The only way you can answer that is to make measurements and to model the climate as best you can. It’s the best you can do. What else can you do? You could read tea leaves and do tarot cards. I don’t know, guess. Well, you can’t do anything else. So that’s what we do. Thats science. Now, the predictions come back and they have large errors on them. Im not sure what the current range is that we carry on. It’s something like 1.7 to 4.5 degree temperature rise by 2100, I think, depending on the assumptions you make. So there’s a big range of errors. But the point is, if you understand that what a scientific statement is then you cant argue with that prediction. There is nothing else you can do. Science is always preliminary. So its not to be seen as some - were not to be seen as a priesthood, which I think sometimes we are and maybe thats a problem that we have in communicating that, you know, Im a scientist and Im telling you that this is going to happen if you carry on doing that, therefore you should do this. Thats not the way to do it. The way to do it... TONY JONES: Well, you know, the sceptics invoke Galileo though. They say that there is always the chance that everyone else is wrong and Im right. BRIAN COX: Well, of course there is. Science is always... TONY JONES: Galileo proves it. BRIAN COX: Science is never right. The power of science is its the only human system of thought I can think of that accepts its own fallibility. The great Jacob Bronowski, in The Ascent of Man, said that. He said that this is - it’s the expression of our humanity because it’s the one discipline that understand its own fallibility, just like we are fallible. But thats the point. The point is that science is the best you can do at any given point. So youve got to act on it. Now, the policy, the policy actions are a different matter. They’re for - I think thats where the politicians come in and the democracy comes in. So, but I get very frustrated, as Im sure you do by asking the question, when people attack the science and the modelling in order to disagree with a policy action. I think thats where the problem lies. TONY JONES: Nalini, the modelling of course is based on mathematics, obviously computer modelling. NALINI JOSHI: Yes. Yes, absolutely. TONY JONES: Do you have any thoughts on this? NALINI JOSHI: Absolutely. I mean, if you think about any other context in which modelling happens, right now, for example, everybody is worried about Ebola and the doubling rate thats going on in many countries in West Africa. The latest mathematical models from the CDC show that if you can isolate or hospitalise 70% of the infected patients by December, then the epidemic will be over in January. So, it gives you a measure of what you can do to finish, to make sure that the epidemic doesnt become a pandemic across the globe. So what does that lead to? It leads to a decision-making process, where you have to decide what resources do you need to be able to hospitalise the 70% of infected patients that are expected by December? So it leads to all kinds of other branches, how many volunteers should you be sending, how many blankets and gowns and all of that should you send? So it gives you a measuring tool. It’s a ruler for deciding how to make the action happen. BRIAN COX: And it is the best one. NALINI JOSHI: It’s the best one we have. BRIAN COX: It’s the only one we have essentially, isn’t it? TONY JONES: Did that make you disappointed then that the Australian Government decided not to send people because of the danger to them? Because they obviously wanted to. They took advice. The advice was those people could get infected and we wouldnt be able to bring them home in time for treatment? NALINI JOSHI: Well, I dont know where the decision-making process is there right now. Have they decided not to send any or have they... TONY JONES: Currently, yeah, I mean, until they can... NALINI JOSHI: I thought they were considering it. TONY JONES: Until they can guarantee - they say until they can guarantee the safety of the health workers? NALINI JOSHI: I think people should go anyway. TONY JONES: Lets move on. Weve got quite a few questions still left and theyre all very interesting. We’ve got a question from Heather Lloyd.
Posted on: Fri, 24 Oct 2014 04:22:41 +0000
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