Kashmir Valley has changed for worse unlike anything seen before ----- It is a different Valley that you see the moment you land in Srinagar. It is not the clear, crisp air, nor the blue sky or clean streams, nor the green poplars and willows which you have associated with Kashmir all your life. The Valley has not got over the after effects of the floods that ravaged it only a few months ago, and the pain lingers, as in the words of the shikarawallah who relives his experience of how he and his family lived on the small boat for 15 days. Things have changed in the state in more ways than one. Who would have thought that people would turnout in such large numbers to cast their vote so soon after the calamity that had hit the state? The large voter turnout can be attributed to three factors. There is no fear that the election would be rigged and the credit for this goes to Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who had held free and fair polls in 2002. Two, people see polls as a way of effecting change, as they distinguish between, what some Kashmiris describe as their “grievances” and their “aspirations”, the first being their demand for bijlee- sadak- paani, good governance as elsewhere in the country, but above all for jobs. The “aspirational” aspect is linked to the political question of a solution to the Kashmir issue, which goes beyond choosing their representatives. The third reason for the large voter turnout is a counter-polarisation taking place in the Valley, to the polarisation in favour of the BJP in Jammu. Though, as always, the militant Hurriyat gave a call for the boycott of elections, many believe that internally, they have, this time, encouraged people to go out and vote in large numbers to ensure that the BJP cannot form a government. The BJP hoped that 2 or 3 of its candidates in the Valley may scrape through in constituencies which have a sizeable number of Kashmiri Pandits (as in Habbakadal or Amirakadal), if the others boycotted in response to the Hurriyat call. There are indications that with people plumping for change, the PDP is doing well in the Valley (which accounts for 46 seats),and the BJP in the Jammu region (with 37 seats), with BJP and Congress likely to be evenly divided in the four seats in Ladakh. The polls can throw up one of three scenarios. One, the PDP (it had led in 41 assembly segments in the LS polls) as the single largest party, joins hands with the Congress and some smaller parties, if it gets 30-35 seats and the Congress a dozen seats. The PDP supporters will be comfortable with this scenario. But Mufti Mohammed Sayeed will have to walk on the knife’s edge because Srinagar has to deal constantly with Delhi. It will be Mufti Mohammed Sayeed as CM again, if the PDP is in a position to form a government, though Mehbooba Mufti has campaigned very hard too. The reason was summed up by a supporter in Mufti’s own constituency of Anantnag: “He has experience of 50 years in politics, and has dealt with every kind of dispensation in Delhi.” The second scenario will be a tough one for PDP—if it emerges as the single largest party but has to join hands with the BJP to enable the formation of a government, the alternative being a horribly hung house as happened in Delhi. The PDP’s support base in the Valley will not take kindly to this development—unless along with quick and visible development initiatives, Mufti can move forward with his old “healing touch” policy. A tie up between the PDP and the BJP has the potential to bring the Valley and the Jammu region closer again, in the give and take that any coalitional arrangement entails. Much will depend on the chemistry between Narendra Modi and Mufti. The third scenario is one in which the BJP manages to notch up 30 seats, and is in a position to lead the government, with the help of smaller parties. Many believe that in such a scenario, the NC, for all the attack by Omar Abdullah, could support the BJP, for it had partnered the BJP earlier in the NDA. DISCLAIMER : Views expressed above are the authors own. Author | Neerja Chowdhury
Posted on: Tue, 16 Dec 2014 05:43:31 +0000
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