Kathie Glass asked me to post two election results charts updated to include 2014 results. We start with 1994 because that is how far back the Secretary of States website of historical election results goes. The charts reflect statewide, non-judicial candidates except that one chart includes Comptroller and one does not. We did this because there was only one major party candidate for Comptroller in 2010 (Republican, of course) and so our LPTexas candidate got a huge spike which makes the chart almost impossible to read. The other chart omits this data so that you can more easily read the other details. Interpretations may vary, but the historical trends make several things more apparent: First, it is difficult to move the numbers for any of these ballot status races. We have only gotten ballot status once via the governors race as reflected on this chart (my governors race in 2010), but Jeff Daiell should have done so in 1990 based on what I have heard his results were. Second, the top of the ticket historically gets a lower percentage of the vote than other statewide candidates. This is a well-recognized phenomena which Harry Browne commented on and is reflected not only on these charts but also in presidential races. Third, the protest vote varies not only from year to year but also from race to race. This year, the protest vote was strong in the Lt. Gov. race (vicious Rep. primary leading to Jerry Patterson endorsing Robert Butler), and the Comptrollers race (Debra Medina supporters outraged at her treatment). I thought that the Land Commissioners race would have more of a protest factor due to George P. Bush, but it doesnt seem to have been present. Regrettably, there was no serious protest factor in the governor or attorney generals race. All of this is if you can trust the numbers. That is another discussion for another time. Would love to hear your thoughts.
Posted on: Fri, 07 Nov 2014 21:06:59 +0000
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