Key Events For This Week Monday, Nov 4 Euro Area ECB speakers: Asmussen, Nowotny Euro Area PMIs (Oct final): Consensus 51.3, previous 51.3 (Flash) US Fed speakers: Powell (FOMC voter), Rosengren (FOMC voter), Fisher (FOMC non-voter) US Factory Orders (Aug): consensus +0.3%, previous -2.4% US Factory Orders (Sep): consensus +1.8% UK PMI Construction (Oct): consensus 58.7, previous 58.9 Turkey CPI (Oct): consensus +7.2%yoy, previous +7.9%yoy Also interesting: Spain PMI (Oct), UK HBOS House Prices (Oct) Tuesday, Nov 5 Australia MPC: Consensus has cash rate target unchanged at 2.50%. Financial markets have all but completely ruled-out a chance of a rate cut in November (~3% chance), with only a one-in-three chance of another 25bp reduction this cycle. We continue to lean towards another reduction by March 2014. Euro Area ECB speakers: Draghi, Asmussen US Fed Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks US ISM Non-manufacturing (Oct): consensus 54.0, previous 54.4 Japan BoJ governor Kuroda speaks in Osaka Japan BoJ MPC minutes Chile MPC minutes (Oct) UK PMI Composite (Oct): previous 60.5 Switzerland CPI (Oct): consensus -0.1%yoy, previous -0.1%yoy Taiwan CPI (Oct): consensus +1.1%yoy, previous +0.8%yoy Chile Economic Activity Index (Sep): consensus +4.2%yoy, previous +4.1%yoy Also interesting: Canada Trade Balance (Sep), Venezuela INPC Headline Inflation (Oct), Philippines CPI (Oct), Colombia CPI (Oct) Wednesday, Nov 6 Poland MPC: Consensus has policy rate unchanged at 2.50% US Fed Pianalto (FOMC non-voter) speaks UK BoE Don Kohn speaks US Non-Farm Productivity and Unit Labour Costs (Q3 prelim.) Euro Area PMIs Services (Oct final): Consensus 50.9, previous 50.9 (Flash) Euro Area PMI Composite (Oct final): Consensus 51.5, previous 51.5 (Flash) Euro Area Retail Sales (Sep): consensus +0.6%yoy, previous -0.3%yoy Germany Factory Orders (Sep): consensus +5.6%yoy, previous +3.1%yoy UK IP (Sep): Consensus +1.8%yoy, previous -1.5%yoy Czech Republic Trade Balance (Sep): consensus EUR+33.3bn, previous EUR+20.6bn Indonesia GDP (Q3): consensus +5.7%yoy, previous +5.8%yoy Also interesting: Russia CPI (Oct), Czech Republic IP (Sep) Thursday, Nov 7 Euro Area MPC: Consensus has main policy tools – interest rate and deposit facility rate – unchanged at 0.50% and 0.00% respectively. The ECB is expected to express more explicitly its concern about the recent strength of the Euro UK MPC: Consensus has main policy tools – policy rate and asset purchases – unchanged at 0.50% and GBP375bn respectively. Consistent with its forward guidance framework, the MPC will almost certainly leave policy unchanged at its November meeting. The messages of the subsequent Inflation Report are somewhat less clear. An improved outlook for growth in Q3 and Q4 suggests the BoE will revise lower its unemployment rate forecast Malaysia MPC: Consensus has policy rate unchanged at 3.00%yoy Peru MPC: Consensus has policy rate unchanged at 4.25%yoy US Fed Stein (FOMC voter) speaks US GDP (Q3 adv.): Consensus +2.0%, previous +2.5% US Initial Jobless Claims: consensus 335,000, previous 340,000 Germany IP (Sep): consensus +0.8%yoy, previous +0.3%yoy Brazil IPCA Inflation (Oct): Consensus +5.87%yoy, previous +5.86%yoy Chile Trade Balance (Oct): consensus $-132mn, previous $-220mn Taiwan Trade Balance (Oct): consensus $+3.2bn yoy, previous $+2.3bn yoy Mexico INPC Core Inflation (Oct): Previous +2.52%yoy Also interesting: US Consumer Credit (Sep), UK Halifax House Prices (Oct), Switzerland FX Reserves (Oct) Friday, Nov 8 Russia MPC: Consensus have weekly auction rate unchanged at 5.50% US Fed speakers: Bernanke (FOMC voter), Lockhart (FOMC non-voter), Williams (FOMC non-voter), Fisher (FOMC non-voter) US Ex-candidate for Fed governor Lawrence Summers speaks at IMF US Non-farm Payrolls (Oct): Consensus 125K, previous 148K US Unemployment Rate (Oct): Consensus 7.3%, previous 7.2% US Personal Consumption (Sep): Consensus +0.2%, previous +0.3% US Personal Income (Sep): Consensus +0.3%, previous +0.4% US U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov, provisional): Consensus 74.5, previous 73.2 Euro Area ECB Asmussen speaks Mexico MPC minutes (Oct) Colombia MPC minutes (Oct) China Trade Balance (Oct): consensus $+23.5bn yoy, previous $+15.2bn yoy UK Trade Balance (Sep): consensus GBP-2.70bn, previous GBP-3.32bn Malaysia Trade Balance (Sep): consensus MYR+6.00bn, previous MYR+7.11bn Also interesting: France IP (Sep), UK Construction (Sep), Canada Housing Starts (Oct), Sweden IP (Sep), Chile CPI (Oct) Saturday, Nov 9 China IP (Oct): consensus +10.1%yoy, previous +10.2%yoy China CPI (Oct): consensus +3.3%yoy, previous +3.1%yoy China PPI (Oct): consensus -1.4%yoy, previous -1.3%yoy Retail Sales (Oct): consensus +13.4%yoy, previous +13.3%yoy
Posted on: Mon, 04 Nov 2013 19:16:31 +0000
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