LAST UPDATE... I BUSTED AWFUL OVER PHILLY... DEL and LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE The time for looking at weather models with regard to the system ended as of early early Monday morning or perhaps the midday model cycles. Now its time for now casting and for the use of high resolution shore range weather models. This map shows some changes which I had made to my a last call forecast. Given the new information and a recent trends I feat a adjusted map is necessary. I know I hav been hard on TWC this afternoon and evening but I just think what they did with this storm was beyond incompetent. And the real problem is that there screw ups increases the workload for all meteorologists. Yet this sort of idiocy continues to go out across the airwaves. Obviously if you are going to use a weather model like the RPM which is so badly designed so utterly atrocious ...so shitty in its overall performance... that you will simply ignore actual facts on the ground and current conditions ... then your forecast is going to end up in trouble. The RPM is a weather model developed for the short term by a well-known private weather company . They shove this piece of crap in front of every TV meteorologist in the country for free in the hope that this company can make some money off of this. The RPM is a repackaged WRF /ARW Model. I can tell you for fact there is not a single meteorologist in the US that knows his stuff that uses the ARW Model for anything other than wipe the back end of his Dog when he craps himself. As a stated on the website and here are a number of different times that these types of East Coast winter storms ... known as MILLER B have two very important rules. #1 some area is always going to get shafted when it comes to snow forecasts vs. what actually has fallen. #2 the northwest side of MILLER B East Coast lows that are undergoing explosive development.... Like this current one... Always underperform. That is to say models almost always over to snow on the northwest side of these types of East Coast winter storms. It is my fault and my fault alone for overdoing the snow amounts too far back towards Philly. I know the rules and perhaps I was so stunned by the extreme snow mounts coming up on the European model I didnt adjust the model data against the RULES. If I had done that I would not have had nearly as much snow as I did over eastern PA / Philly southern NJ and Delaware. First let me emphasize again that if you scroll down this page and you look at my previous forecast of the weekend I consistently talked about the fact that the heaviest snow was going to occur on Monday evening across NYC and Northern New Jersey. The small break which occurred in the snow over NYC and Ne NJ early evening was not a surprise as most of the model data over the last 48 hours showed this. That is not to say that there arent a lot of tricky aspects to this amazing storm. There certainly are. I have tried to adjust the snow green as much as I can but Im not even sure if this is going to be correct. WHAT ABOUT PHILLY / SOUTH NJ / DELAWARE? Actually all there is not lost and let me show you why. It is obvious based upon the actual radar and current conditions that the heavy snow has rotated back from Connecticut into New York City and Eastern New Jersey. Therefore it follows that those models which correctly detected this ... are the scenarios which are turning out to be correct. An example of this was the 18Z NAM which came out 4pm EST. It clearly show the heavy snow bands over eastern and Central New England getting pulled back into New York City and down the jersey coast towards Atlantic City. Most of the activity will be situated over central and Eastern New Jersey barely reaching the Philadelphia metro area . The 0z HRRR ...a specialized high resolution short range model that came out and around 9:30 PM... shows some very interesting developments over the next 12 to 15 hours. At midnight (image #2) we can see that the model has extremely heavy snow-- the GREEN COLOR -light on the edge of New York City perhaps over Queens and Laguardia.... and covering most of Massachusetts all of Connecticut and Rhode Island and all of Long island. The DARK BLUE represents moderate snow which is over NYC and northeast and New Jersey. But by 2:00 AM look what has happened ( THIRD IMAGE ) . The heavy snow band has exploded all the way back to the Western New Jersey Pennsylvania border and reaching Trenton and Atlantic City. Moderate snow has reached Philly and Vineland.... and into interior portions of southeastern New York and the lower Hudson Valley That moderate to heavy snow continues through 8:30 AM on Tuesday (FOURTH IMAGE) across all of the lower Hudson Valley as well as all of New York City almost all of New Jersey from SUFFERN down to Cape May and Vineland. If this is correct this is going to cause heavy snow accumulations across much of New Jersey as well as continue to piled up the snow mounts over the northeast and New Jersey and New York City. That being said... it does look like Delaware is going to be really over as well as most of the lower Maryland Eastern shore. I busted really badly there.
Posted on: Tue, 27 Jan 2015 04:16:07 +0000
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