***LATEST UPDATE ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA*** *** SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA CATEGORY 3*** ***SEVERE TC ITA HAS NOW STARTED PUSHING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTH WEST AFTER A PERIOD OF STATIONARY MOVEMENT*** ***MODELLING IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH MODELS NOW HINTING AT A GROWING PROBABILITY OF A SOUTHERLY TRACK AFTER LANDFALL WITH A LONGER TERM RE-CURVE TO THE SOUTH SOUTH EAST OR SOUTH EAST*** ***IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR EVERYONE TO READ*** Good evening to everyone out there hope you had a great Tuesday As mentioned modelling is starting to hint at a re-curve once TC Ita made landfall however its very important to remeber that some models also still suggest at a peninsula crossing between Cape Melville to Lockhart river with a longer term track which continues into the Gulf of Carpentaria. These are the two possible scenarios being suggested by the latest guidance. I have included again the different models analysed and their suggested tracks to 5 days out (Sunday 13/4/14) Latest remarks on TC Ita: TC Ita has commenced its expected westward track over the past few hours, though the latest position fix is only fair. The mid level ridge of high pressure over eastern Australia is expected to continue ridging zonally out into the southwestern reaches of the Coral Sea over the next few days, further accelerating the westward motion. Towards the end of the week global modelling varies in its treatment of an approaching upper trough, with most models introducing a low amplitude upper trough of low pressure and allowing a westward motion across Cape York Peninsula before capturing the system and dragging it southwards over land. A much smaller number of forecast models introduce the southward motion earlier in the forecast period, allowing the system to move southwards along the east coast of Queensland, though these scenarios are outliers at the moment. TC Ita lies in a low shear environment with good upper level outflow. The system is expected to remain in an environment that ordinarily would be expected to be favourable for development, though allowances have been made for the high terrain over Papua New Guinea, which may hinder development over the short term and is unlikely to be well resolved by global models. Latest model guidance best estimated landfall position and what time the cyclone will cross: Euro: The Euro according to latest guidance landfalls the cyclone on the east peninsula coastline close to Lockhart River During the 10th April into the 11th April then continuing on into the Gulf of Carpentaria where this guidance indicates it could begin to re-intensify again. UKMET: The UKMET solution indicates TC Ita to make landfall around the Princess Charlotte bay area north of Cooktown during the early parts of 11th April before stalling well inland from Cairns. The GFS: This model presents the other solution being suggested with TC Ita approaching the FNQ coast on the 10th April before making landfall to the south of cooktown or northern parts of Cape Tribulation. TC Ita then hugs the coastline all the way down to about Rollingstone just to the north of about Rollingstone then popping off the coast just to the north or close to Townsville on the 12th April. The CMC: This model also suggests a recurve solution however later than the GFS. TC Ita according to this model makes landfall close to Cooktown on the 11th April before tracking to south west inland from Cairns before re-curving back towards Townsville and exiting off the coast very close to Townsville during the 12th into the 13th April. The FIM 8 Experimental model: This guidance indicates a solution where TC Ita crosses the coast on the 11th April close to Cooktown before following a similar track to the CMC model however not as far inland and keeps the system just inland from Cairns. The re-curve is also being suggested here and the system then tracks in a south east to south south east direction towards Townsville before re entering the coral sea close to Townsville. The Bureau of Meteorologys ACCESS R model has come more into agreement with the Euro and has ditched the Torres strait solution and brings TC Ita closer to Lockhart River crossing on the 10th into 11th April, Ita then continues south westward into the gulf following a similar solution to the Euro. All the latest guidance have been included this evening for your comparison plus the latest satellite image thanks to the University of Wisconsin. Just click on the pic and scroll through the various models which are as follows: 1. Satellite pic of TC Ita 2. Euro 3. UKMET 4. GFS 5. Experimental FIM 8 model 6. CMC 7. Navgem Remember that this is a quite a complex scenario particularly with models indicating 2 different possible scenarios and as we have seen so far these models will no doubt change their track forecasts so it is absolutely important that EVERYONE particularly Townsville North to the Tip of Cape York Peninsula stays up to date with all the latest on Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita here on Townsville Storms as well as all the products released like the TC Bulletins, Watches and Warnings on TC Ita by the Bureau of Meteorology, especially that Ita is forecast to develop into a Category 4 cyclone. Hope everyone has a great night. Allan
Posted on: Tue, 08 Apr 2014 09:59:44 +0000
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