LONG RANGE OUTLOOK Thursday, August 28, 2014 WINTER 2014-15 LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PATTERN TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE WINTER SEASON, DECEMBER 2014 THROUGH FEBRUARY 2015, WILL FEATURE COLDER AND STORMIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL & EASTERN U.S. IF THE EL NINO EVENT HOLDS IN THE WEAK TO MODERATE RANGE AND IF THE NORTH PACIFIC WARM POOL HOLDS STEADY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MID-FALL PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IN THE COLD WINTER CALL WILL INCREASE FURTHER... MY EARLY CALL IS FOR A WIDESPREAD COLDER THAN NORMAL WINTER FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL & EASTERN U.S., AS WELL AS CENTRAL CANADA… WHILE I MAY NEED TO REFINE THE PLACEMENT OF THE AREA OF ENHANCED COLD POTENTIAL, MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL SETUP ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS… GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY THAT ALWAYS OCCURS WHEN TRYING TO DETERMINE THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF HIGH LEVEL BLOCKING, I WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE NY, NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA… THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL WINTER IS CERTAINLY IN PLAY ACROSS THESE REGIONS, BUT THE BLOCKING FORECAST NEEDS TO BE CLARIFIED BEFORE CONFIDENCE INCREASES… WINTER STORM – SNOWFALL POTENTIAL On the Winter Pattern Forecast Map on page 1, I depict a mean trough across the east-central U.S. and an active southern stream energy source induced by the El Nino. This type of a winter pattern setup is a recipe for significant winter storm activity across the central and eastern U.S. during the heart of the winter season. Past similar patterns produce significant eastern storms and Nor’easters with above normal snowfall occurring across the vast majority of the eastern U.S., including the big I-95 corridor urban centers. Obviously, we will take the storm events one at a time as the winter unfolds, but most analog patterns are very supportive of above normal snowfalls across the Northern Middle Atlantic, eastern NY and New England.
Posted on: Fri, 29 Aug 2014 19:02:54 +0000