LONG RANGE PREDICTION: The Macedonian political and cultural elite will reach a point, a critical juncture in the very near future, where it has to decide to keep or break the 2001 OFA - Ohrid Framework Agreement. My prediction or educated guess is if it keeps the OFA, Macedonia will become a second Kosovo, partioned, and the Macedonian elite will be forced into a no-win situation, that is it will be placed into a corner where it has to decide if the rump or left over part of Macedonia becomes a part of Serbia or Bulgaria. If it breaks the OFA, it will receive severe criticism from the European Union, NATO and so on, it may even have the tap of easy money cut off but Macedonia will survive intact as an independent nation-state. These will be the tough choices facing Macedonias leaders within the next decade. Polticians anywhere in the world have a tendency to go for the easier option and put off hard decisions until the very last minute. Sometimes it can be too late ! As a pundit or commentator, there is always a danger that when you make a prediction or take an educated guess that it will turn out to be wrong and you end up with egg on your face. Its not a question of gazing into a crystal ball or using magical super powers or following other peoples fashions but instead analysing trends; using science and logic to make an educated guess. THE 1991 WAR - On 25 January 1991 - in an article published in the Croatian Herald, I called it right in predicting that the JNA (Yugoslavia Peoples Army) would attack Slovenia, which it did 5 months and 1 day on the 26 June 1991. This came about because of good sources. THE 2001 WAR On 20 May 1993 at a public meeting at Brookwood Reception, Melbourne, Australia with about 200 to 300 people in attendance, and after spending 6 months in Belgium and Macedonia for the MILS news agency I warned that an ethnic Albanian Uprising would take place in Macedonia. Eight years later that, sadly, turned out to be correct. At the end of this meeting I faced fierce opposition and insults from some of the audience about by frank assessment: some VMRO-DPMNE supporters denounced me for being a spy for Kiro Gligorov and the SDSM supporters called me a servant (zagar) for Ljubco Georgievski. I dont belong to any political party and I call it as it is. The political debate has now turned into a football match with supporters supporting their team, their political party, rather than dealing with the stark reality that faces Macedonias viability as a nation-state.
Posted on: Wed, 21 Jan 2015 04:22:40 +0000
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